Hello Everyone… last updated 9 April 2020
We have nothing to sell that can help people with the virus… but, consistent with our first goal when starting our business 25 years ago, EDUCATION & QUALITY INFORMATION ARE PRIMARY, and that is something we might be able to help with!
Since mid February, when we started getting questions and emails on the topic of ‘the virus,’ we have since received thousands of emails and messages. Many with questions, but most of the trying to sell something OR spread fear & misinformation. This post does none of those things.
We’ve got ‘no dog in the fight’… other than we are Americans, also living in this time of a National Crisis… just like you. However, we are lucky in that we have a variety of educated science types, researchers and doctors we can ask questions and get rational answers from. Below, are some things you might find helpful on the topic of ‘the virus.’
If you turn on a TV, read most any news paper, get on the internet, or look at social media it’s riddled with fearmongering, doom, gloom, misinformation, ignorance, and people panicking.
We spent the last couple months gathering information and speaking with doctors on the topic. After 25 years in business, it should be understood that the health and safety of our customers, as well as our staff… community, country, and world… are a priority to us. We are doing everything we can to ensure we continue being available to operate our business safely and efficiently, with sanitation and your security in mind.
We are geographically located safely away from any of the ‘hot spots’ and masses of people (about 20 minutes from the nearest city, Knoxville). Because we do not have a retail store, aren’t ‘open to the general public’ – live and work in rural America, and have healthcare items, though nothing for infectious diseases, we are considered an ‘essential service’ and are SHIPPING OUT PRODUCT on a daily basis… TO doctors, clinics, pharmacies, and customers in the USA… and many countries. With that said, we want you to know we will continue monitoring the situation closely. We have spoke with many doctors familiar with treating the corona-virus in animals, as well as different strains in people; in addition doctors specializing in treating infectious diseases.
We sincerely feel for all the people that have passed, all that are suffering… all their families, friends, and co-workers. We are very optimistic that solutions are IN PROCESS, and that things will be ‘back to normal’ very soon, for the vast majority of people here in America (and around the world)!
Each day we’re learning more, and a lot is now known from compared to the last few weeks, because of actual numbers from the cruise ships, and countries we can trust. We are confident that the information below should help you feel better, safer, and more aware of what is real vs the hype the media is pushing. People don’t have to be scared… we NEED TO BE AWARE and CAREFUL! We CAN protect ourselves and our family!
Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), can cause the disease COVID-19 in people. However, it’s cart vs horse, they are NOT THE SAME THING! The SARS-CoV-2 virus is a type of ‘zoonotic virus’ that jumps from animals to humans, and has been known (in the veterinarian world) for at least 50 years, with a vaccine NVX-CoV2373 FOR ANIMALS existing for about 40 years. The coronavirus has been known to effect and negatively impact the human world since at least the 90’s… with peer reviewed science and government suggestions for research, caution warnings, and millions spent for research… with protection of people being a topic of discussion (and spending) SINCE AT LEAST 2003.
Dr. David Price, a critical care pulmonologist caring for COVID-19 patients in New York City at Weill Cornell Medical Center, lays out exactly what people need to do: “This disease is a wimp. Coronavirus is a wimp. It dies as soon as you disinfect it. It breaks down immediately when people wash their hands or use a hand sanitizer,” the doctor said. “90% of the transmission is purely from picking up the germ on your hands and then literally putting it into our own bodies. The ways that you get this virus is almost exclusively from YOUR hands to YOUR face (90+%); and then from your hands to your inside your eyes, into your nose or into your mouth,” Price said. Moral: DO NOT TOUCH YOUR FACE, except with clean hands or material you know is absolutely clean. You CAN NOT ABSORB IT THROUGH YOUR SKIN, so ‘gloves’ only matter if you have ‘open wounds’ or abrasions… what happens is hands MOVING IT TO THE FACE – EYES, NOSE, MOUTH – where it can enter the body! If droplets are breathed in from a person coughing or talking in front of you… you can get it! GET THOSE THAT COUGH TO COVER THEIR MOUTH!
The virus is NOT airborne! Again, it is NOT airborne! You have to TOUCH IT, or come in direct contact with it from another person’s mouth, touch, or their shed virus (infection) ON SOMETHING YOU BREATH or TOUCH (then you have to touch your face with the hand that ‘has the germs/virus’).
In general, unless they are spitting, 6 feet is generally the ‘safe distance’ from another person’s mouth (less if their mouth is covered).
Again, if the virus is on an object an infected person touched or breathed on… then you touched that… and picked up the virus, then touched your own mouth, nose, or eyes with hands (even with gloves on) YOU COULD PICK UP THE VIRUS, and CAN GET SICK! That is how it is spread! The pole on a subway. The food tray or arm rest, or window cover, on a plane. A door handle, a shopping cart handle, play ground equipment, shared public items – like ‘key pads’ (for credit/debit cards), pens, keyboards, and such. Make sure you WASH YOUR HANDS after use, and don’t be touching your face with hands you aren’t 100% sure aren’t virus free.
You can NOT ‘get it’ in your house, unless you or someone infected carried the virus into your house. If you aren’t sure, disinfect where they’ve been, and all the stuff you touch. Also, you don’t get it just being outside on your deck, porch, in your yard or even in the woods. YOU HAVE TO TOUCH IT – on something or someone – or in direct contact with some thing when an infected someone has shed the virus on some thing you touch… and even then, IF YOU DO NOT TOUCH YOUR FACE – mouth, nose, eyes – with uncleaned hands, you can not ‘just get it.. Public transportation, and being in crowds of people increase your odds of getting the virus, which is one of the main reasons New York and New Jersey have been hit so hard.
Gloves won’t help you if you aren’t also very careful with what you do while wearing them, if you don’t keep those fingers from your face.
UNLESS YOU LIVE IN NYC (New York City), or one of the serious ‘hot spots,’ using public transportation or dealing with ‘homeless people’ is NOT ADVISED! It is important NOT to turn on the news and look at NYC and think that that’s what ‘is going to happen in the area you live! Despite the media, and certain politicians, the Math honestly doesn’t justify the fear for the majority in the free-world… with REASONABLE awareness and precautions.
4/9/2020 Update: Things learned/confirmed in the last few days:
a) THERE SEEMS TO BE A FUNCTIONAL TREATMENT NOW: hydroxychloroquine/Plaquenil (used to fight Malaria) (adding Z-Pac, if the person is on a ventilator, to help fight any bacterial infections) has shown consistent positive results. Those patients that were severe enough to require hospitalization, which were able to make it past the first two days of treatment have not yet had to be Intubated (i.e. put on a ventilator); according to a couple hospitals, all have recovered. There aren’t enough numbers, yet, to say there really is more than real hope & promise. That drug is also being used as a prophylactic for healthcare workers… to help prevent them from ‘getting’ the disease while trying to help those infected… and that also appears to be working well. Those taking it are having their heart & health more closely monitored. There is supposedly a vaccine in process, and in test stages.
b) Co-morbidity is far more vital than AGE! The virus doesn’t care so much about ‘age.’ For those unfamiliar with the word, “co-morbidity” is the presence of one or more additional conditions co-occurring with (that is, accompanying, or concurrent with) a more obvious condition.
On 4/2/2020, the scientists said there appears to be about an 80%+ probability of a ‘serious condition patient’ having at least one of three primary pre-existing conditions that stood out from those that didn’t have to be intubated. Those were:
- known (pre-existing) weakened immune system,
- obesity (over 75% of the people in Italy and Spain, on the Cruise ships, had a BMI over 35%), and/or
- diabetes and precursors to diabetes.
- certain heart conditions as also been reported as a cofactor in some cases.
- In a new study, made public on April 7th, there are some rational numbers showing that people exposed to high levels of air pollution, not just smoking, prior to becoming infected shows those people are more to suffer more serious symptoms than patients in cleaner parts of the country. According to this study there is a clear link between long-term exposure to pollution and Covid-19 death rates. “In an analysis of 3,080 counties in the United States, researchers at the Harvard University T.H. Chan School of Public Health found that higher levels of the tiny, dangerous particles in air known as PM 2.5 were associated with higher death rates from the disease.” (so, again, unless you live in a high pollution hot spot, you have far less to worry about… if you are in a hot spot with high pollution you should be EVEN MORE CAREFUL).
- (as with most healthcare providers) HYPER SATURATION or repeated mass exposure many doctors, nurses, and public servants that became sick reported.
c) Next interesting ‘symptom’ involves SELF-AWARENESS! Nearly 80% of the people that have tested positive for Covid-19 have lost either their ability to SMELL or TASTE, since they have become infected. That leaves at least 20% that still tests positive that don’t have those symptoms.
But remember, here in American the average has been about 80-90% of the people that have been tested result in a negative (even in NYC and other metro areas). Those people scared into getting tested, because they ‘felt they had symptoms’ turned out to be allergies, common cold, or something other than SARS-coV-2 or Covid-19. 80% of those that do actually test positive reported a loss of the sense of smell or taste. So, if you suddenly find that you can’t smell or taste things, odds are YOU NEED TO TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS!
d) “Having a mouth ‘cover’ PROTECTS THE PERSON IN FRONT OF YOU! NOT REALLY YOU!” ~ Dr. Davenport
“Having a N-95 mask on a ‘healthy person’ does NOT prevent them from ‘getting’ the virus, it *might* limit their exposure – some (depending on how it fits their face, and how they deal with the OTHER AREAS that are exposed, especially their hands, whether they are wearing gloves or not). However, having a mouth cover on sick people, those coughing, and anyone positive for the virus WILL HELP REDUCE their shedding, and therefore reducing the spread from them.
Save the N-95 masks for those that really need them, and those on the front line that are being hyper-saturated with the virus from multiple sources throughout their shifts.
e) Italy, and some of the other countries, are going to RE-EVALUATE their ‘death numbers’ – to see which were REALLY covid-19 causes, and which has co-morbidity (one or more pre-existing, or ‘underlying,’ conditions that contributed to, what the real reason or actually had little to nothing to do with covid-19). Italy estimates that at least 12% of their ‘deaths’ attributed to Covid-19 were ACTUALLY ‘other causes’ and not really ‘covid-19 disease.’ They asserted that the patient was ‘in a ward’ with someone that tested positive, or might have ‘had the virus’ IN THEIR NASAL PASSAGE, but there was no sign of ‘the Covid-19’ pneumonia in their lungs, or blood stream. So it really shouldn’t have been attributed to this disease. Past numbers haven’t been adjusted, but future numbers will be (according to authorities)… same with some of the other countries, including most states in America.
f) Anti-bodies! There is a growing number of people that have tested positive for the ANTI-BODIES, but no sign of having covid-19… which means they ‘had it’ but built an immunity, and don’t appear to be ‘carrying’ or ‘spreading’ the virus; and, more importantly, those people COULD potentially help others, and ‘go back to work’ SOONER because they supposedly can’t ‘get’ the virus (again) once they have the effective anti-bodies. Many science types are saying that serology tests need to be done to determine just how many people already have the anti-bodies. The results from tests over the last week have shown it could be a lot of people (that already had it).
The FDA Commissioner, Dr. Stephen Hahn, is pushing for more data and is seeing why the reality of co-morbidity numbers are important.
Some reality in the numbers, as of 4/9/20 (5:40pm EST), in the USA:
2,600,000+ tests ran (now over 100k per day), so it’s REASONABLE to expect the ‘positive cases’ numbners to drastically increase, merely because the number of people being tested have significantly increased.
462,180 positives (77.9% of the tests done were NEGATIVE)
16,444 deaths (0.65% Deaths vs TOTAL POSITIVE TESTS)
(0.00433% % of Deaths vs TOTAL POPLULATION)
25,125 confirmed ‘recovered’
Remember, there are 330,000,000+ citizens in the USA… with another 50,000,000 ‘visitors’ (non-citizens – documented on work or school visa’s, and undocumented). Basic math shows that just 1% of that number is 3,800,000 and there is NO COUNTRY – NONE – including Italy – that has 1% of ‘the population’ dying from this virus! Nor is the number 1/10th of a percent (380,000) so BE CAREFUL, but be aware and careful!
MATH IS IMPORTANT… as you will see below.
IF a person ‘gets sick’ – they could be ‘making & shedding’ the virus (aka, spreading it) for 3 to 5 days BEFORE any symptoms appear, which is where that ‘expodential math’ that could be so scary comes into play. Wearing a mask protects the PERSON(S) IN FRONT OF YOU! People AROUND YOU wearing masks protects you far more than you wearing a mask.
COMMON SENSE, reasonable actions with rational thinking CAN PREVAIL…
At this point, 42 States have issued a ‘Stay at Home’ order, except for essential persons, and valid reasons like ‘to get food’ or ‘urgent repairs’ … or go to the doctor. There are still some ‘essential services’ – like healthcare, emergency dental work, emergency veterinary services, gas, grocery, and staple supplies. (Note: OSHA is supposedly CLOSING DOWN & PULLING THE LICENSE of Dentists in some states that are working on NON-EMERGENCY cases because of the potential spread of the virus).
Our Goal is to Inform & Educate
Most emails I’ve received about the virus talk about what THAT BUSINESS is doing to make your frequenting (or shopping) safer… or better with them. Instead, we – at MD’s Choice / VetSupplements.com are only hoping to help inform and educate; our products can help joints & digestion issues, but we don’t have anything to ‘fight viruses.’ Sorry, but creating products or solutions to help treat ‘novel infectious diseases’ has never been our companies focus. We’re confident there are many qualified doctors actively working on solutions for those infected, and the rest of us that haven’t yet contracted it.
MD’s Choice/VetSupplements.com is still operating, and we are here to help when we can. We’re honestly not asking you to purchase anything different or extra, especially nothing you wouldn’t normally purchase. We are here… no one here is infected, and we will continue answering questions, helping customers, shipping out our product as customer’s place orders, and help educate & inform when possible. No more, no less.
Interestingly, at least to us, is the reality that veterinarians have been dealing with coronavirus’s for over 40 years. There really is quite a bit of scientific information from 2003 to present on the topic of HUMAN’S WITH coronavirus, and the reality of strain mutations and infection rates (I’ve added some links toward the end).
The goal of this message is to help people UNDERSTAND why things are happening, and perhaps put some of those things into a proper perspective; and help explain what they can do to help protect themselves and their loved ones. Also, a bit why the government(s) (and parts of society) are acting as they are.
UNLESS YOU ARE INFECTED & coughing (shedding droplets)… or around someone that is infected… a non-infected person wearing a N95-MASK WILL NOT GET MUCH PROTECTION FROM the infection. There is more to it than just donning a face cover/mask… even the N95 masks. Having a mouth ‘cover’ PROTECTS THE PERSON IN FRONT OF YOU!
However, an infected person wearing a mask or cover CAN HELP protect everyone around them, AND EVERYTHING they are around for the next 14 days! Because the mask can reduce or eliminate ‘shedding’ (droplets or mist containing the virus, leaving the mouth from coughing and sneezing).
Understanding how you can avoid ‘the virus,’ what to do IF you (or a loved one gets it); as well as the actual MATH on the situation is vital to a CALM RATIONAL RESPONSE! Which is something we are NOT GETTING from most politicians OR the lamestream media that seems to be more trying to scare people into isolation or compliance. It seems their intent is massive spending – well out of the current fiscal budget; just a few weeks after the scotus (Supreme Court of the United States) upheld the ‘no-federal money’ to santuary cities, and despite the years of the political battles over the ‘debt ceiling’. BOOM – in less than two weeks – 6.2 TRILLION APPROVED by congress, signed by the potus (President of the United States)… and those are some of the reasons ‘it’ REALLY IS POLITICAL at the core.
I’m sure, at some point in your life, you’ve heard the saying about never allowing a crisis to go to waste. However, in 2009, the democrats twisted it from distraction to progressive action, as they began shoving every bill they could through congress (as they had a super majority control over all three branches of government). Their new mantra became: “You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it’s an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before.” ~ Rahm Emanuel
Here is some non-fearmongering, MATH & SCIENCE REALITY for you.
- are not directly exposed… you can NOT get it! It is seriously and literally THAT SIMPLE!
Things to help insure that won’t ‘get it’ are:
- stay inside your own home/property/area as much as possible… the virus is NOT AIRBORNE, therefore can’t ‘come in to’ your home UNLESS you – or someone BRINGS IT IN!
- pre-screen visitors (avoid face to face meetings as possible)… TALK WITH THEM OUTSIDE OF YOUR HOUSE – in the lawn, the drive way, or over the phone/computer!
- try to stay at least 6 to 10 feet away from strangers, especially if their mouth isn’t covered, even if they don’t cough.
- when you DO GO OUT… be EXTRA CAREFUL about what you touch.
- sanitize what strangers touch, ASSUME THEY ARE INFECTED
- be careful with the bottom of your shoes when in public
- DO NOT use public transportation, unless absolutely necessary… and then with precaution, because the germs are invisible.
- boost your Vitamin C intake to about 1000mg 3x a day,
- add at least 30mg Zinc if you aren’t getting it through diet or supplements
- practice healthy & sanitary habits
- STAY AWAY FROM HOSPITALS & CLINICS UNLESS IT IS A SERIOUS EMERGENCY, or chronic issue you MUST have treatment for!
- vulnerable people should wear a mask, and be more aware
- vulnerable people should NOT BE IN PUBLIC or around strangers if at all possible, or any more than necessary!
- You CAN NOT get it from a TREE, trail, or road… but beware of FUEL PUMP handles, and door handles IN PUBLIC!
- YOU DO NOT NEED TO BE TESTED – unless you have symptoms or were likely exposed!
- COMMON SENSE and RATIONAL PRECAUTIONS PREVAIL!
- are exposed
- there is an 83 to 90+ percent chance you will NOT get it, if you practice reasonable precautions like washing hands after touching anything a stranger (or infected person) has touched. Don’t touch your face or mouth, or eat with your hands, unless they are absolutely clean. (I’ll explain those numbers later)
- stay away from other’s as much as possible for at least 5 to 15 days, to help insure you didn’t contract it.
- if you experience any symptoms, especially a fever or cough for more than a couple hours, or loss of senses, then self-isolation should happen for 15 days AFTER your last symptoms are seen.
- sanitize your surroundings,
- limit what you’re touching & clean up after yourself… because you don’t want to re-infect yourself (if you are infected)
- everyone AROUND YOU should be “sheltered in place” (quarantined) also… unless they are medical professionals and regularly test negative.
- Do you smoke, live in a high pollutant area, or have pre-existing lung problems?
- Do you have a fever of 100.4 degrees or higher?
- Have you recently LOST your sense of smell or taste? In South Korea, Spain, and Italy, about a third of patients who have tested positive for COVID-19 have also reported a loss of smell — known as anosmia or hyposmia.
- Do you have a chronic headache or dry cough, you didn’t have previously?
- If yes to any of those ‘presenters,’ you should self quarantine… and should stay clear or anyone, and wear a mask or cover to reduce the spread of ‘droplets.’ If the problems become serious, the fever is above 104 degrees, or you have a pre-existing issues that makes you particularly vulnerable, you should CHECK WITH YOUR HEALTHCARE PROVIDER or consider getting tested.
- If you don’t have any symptoms, and you KNOW YOU WERE EXPOSED, you should still self-isolate, at least through the incubation period to be sure. You should especially stay away from anyone and everyone that *might be* vulnerable.
- IF symptoms start to show, and you are seriously concerned, then contact your healthcare provider, or consider one of the ‘drive up’ testing centers… rather than going to a hospital or clinic; but seriously, CALL A MEDICAL PROFESSIONAL FIRST!
- obviously, if you are an active healthcare provider or EMT you should be tested DAILY AND OFTEN… to help insure YOUR safety, that of your family, friends, co-workers, and future patients.
- do get it, or are ‘positive’ for it, there is a 50% chance you won’t display symptoms. Awareness is key. If you’ve traveled to areas that had it while you were there, were around people you know tested positive, or in crowds of strangers that *might* have been infected… then you should self-quarantine… and be aware. You do NOT NEED TO BE TESTED unless you are in an ‘at risk category’ or the symptoms might be life threatening; you can call your local healthcare provider to see if they feel you should be tested. HOWEVER, it’s important to understand:
- if you don’t have symptoms, and weren’t in a situation where you are likely to have been exposed, then odds are you will test negative!
- OVER 90% of the people tested in the USA, as of 3/20/2020, that were tested… tested NEGATIVE! Which honestly wasted tests, medical staff & lab time… took healthcare providers away from helping people seriously in need, and frankly didn’t solve anything… but run the ‘infected’ numbers up in New York, and make it ‘appear’ it was ‘spreading fast’ (when in fact, it was likely already spread from the weeks before the testing). Those initially testing negative could:
- get infected on the way home (or while waiting in some line to be tested)…
- be in the incubation period… of 2 to 5 days, which would allow them to test negative, even though they have it or may get it
- or could become infected tomorrow or the next week
TESTING EVERYONE, like some ‘reporters’ in the LAMESTREAM MEDIA were pushing for, IS BEYOND STUPID and meaningless. It’s an absolute waste of money, time, and other resources!
- do have symptoms, there is a 98+% chance you will be fine
- STAY AWAY FROM OTHER PEOPLE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, especially anyone with a compromised immune system or pre-existing lung problems, as it seems those are far bigger issues and concerns than ‘age.’
- wear a mask or cover to reduce any ‘droplets’ you *might* spread
- when you are outside your home… limit what you touch
- maintain a SAFE DISTANCE from other people!
- understand there is no vaccine at this time (and treatments, though promising, is still in trails if the symptoms are serious and confirmed, which are still limited in some geographical areas)
- hydrate – get necessary nutrients, especially vitamin C and other immune system boosters
- stay warm and comfortable,
- get plenty of sleep
- understand, for the vast majority of people, the symptoms and response is very much LIKE A REALLY BAD COLD; for those with bad lungs or a weakened immune system, it’s pneumonia on steroids and you’ll want to get medical help.
- Get some exercise when you can
With all that said, IF you are immune compromised, have serious pre-existing lung issues, recently went through an organ transplant, cancer treatment, or were on antibiotics within the last 60 days… then YOU SHOULD TAKE SOME EXTRA precautions… and seriously limit your exposure to other people, and the STUFF THEY TOUCH, unless you are absolutely sure they don’t have it.
The ‘red’ on the map at this link are CONFIRMED POSITIVE CASES, not deaths. Yes, it’s scary looking. You should ZOOM IN to see what is being reported in your area. You can zoom in to an area, click on a ‘dot’ in a county… and see the numbers for that dot. The ‘hot spots’ should tell you WHERE to avoid, and areas you should STAY AWAY FROM while this stuff is still ‘out’ and going.
If you have a wheel on your mouse, you can easily zoom in or out using that. If you don’t, use the plus & minus sign. You can ‘click hold drag’ to move around to see different countries, or counties & cities in a state.
Our Goal is to help inform & educate (above)
Patient Zero – here in the USA:
Closures and Changes in Hours:
Best Way to Prevent Illness
Growth Rate & Demographics
Reason there is urgency and fear
Here’s the problem with Covid-19:
Testing does NOT accomplish what most think
Marc Serota, MD
Diamond Princess Mysteries
LAMESTREAM MEDIA’s Reaction
Celebrities Testing Positives
Patient Zero – here in the USA:
The new coronavirus was identified after notification of pneumonia cases of unknown cause in November or December 2019, diagnosed initially in the Chinese city of Wuhan, capital of Hubei province.
As of today, a novel corona-virus called SARS-CoV-2 has spread to all continents except Antarctica; with the first confirmed U.S. case involving a 35-year-old man who had traveled to Wuhan, China, before returning to Washington State. Some speculate that he had lay-overs in New York, LA, and Sea-Tac Airports, which are why those areas are particularly hit hard, as fellow travelers were unknowingly infected. He was confirmed to have the virus on Jan. 20, 2020, and was deemed ‘patient zero’ here IN AMERICA… and why Washington state has so many early cases (and deaths). His name hasn’t been released for obvious reasons, and it’s unclear if he’s still alive… but assumed that he likely is still.
The first death in America was on February 29th, a man in his 50’s with underlying pre-existing health conditions. The man was not associated with the long-term care center in Kirkland, WA (just outside Seattle), but was a patient at the SAME HOSPITAL where other’s from the facility were being treated.
There were 27 patients and 25 staff members at the long-term care center in Kirkland, WA having symptoms around that time (many have since passed away). Since then, the virus (which causes the disease now referred to as COVID-19) has spread to every state, with new cases emerging every day.
Face masks ON those coughing or infected WILL help prevent patients from spreading the virus; but masks & gloves, like we’ve seen some wearing in public, doesn’t really protect them unless they are well trained (and absolutely keep their hands from their face). If you’re near an infected person, you’re at risk.
At this point, we are told that it was a virus originated ‘from Wuhan, China.’ Whether it was from eating or handling some exotic animal in the ‘wet market,’ as the Chinese government claims, or an experiment gone wrong from a research laboratory (accidentally or on purpose), or some type of bio-weapon is frankly something “we” (the people) may never honestly know.
The CDC, WHO, and certain scientists are saying that research suggests that “horseshoe bats” are the reservoir species the virus originated from. Apparently, the two previous human coronavirus outbreaks, SARS and MERS, also originated in bats but passed through other species, such as the palm civet and camels.
What we do know is that the virus IS REAL, and spreading. As such, speculation without evidence doesn’t solve anything at this point. It only serves to distract from potentially life-saving measures to contain and/or slow the spread of corona-virus.
However, Daniel Horowitz pointed out on · March 24, 2020: “It’s truly inconceivable that it would take so long for the virus to come here (to America) after it broke out in China in November (2019). We likely had hundreds of thousands of travelers coming here and countless tens of thousands of Chinese nationals flying back even before Customs and Border Protection introduced any health care screening per CDC guidance on January 17. There are roughly 3.4 million Chinese admissions every year, not counting the numerous Americans who fly there and back. If we divide that by six to account for a two-month period before Trump shut off travel but after (we learned) the virus had developed in Wuhan, that would be nearly 600,000 Chinese nationals.” [traveling to the USA, and doesn’t count the vast number of American’s that traveled to and from WuHan China during those months].
As Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the coronavirus response task force, said on the 23rd of March, regarding the spread in New York City, “Clearly the virus had to have been circulating for a number of weeks in order to have this level of penetrance in the community.”
Closures and Changes in Hours:
Most metro areas, and public officials – at the recommendation of the CDC – are pushing for a cessation of all public gatherings, promoting ‘social distancing’ (6′ distance or more), and a defined limit of 10 to 25 people… until the end of April 2020. Some areas, metro areas or states have stricter guidelines. The ‘shelter in place’ type segregation’s, ‘essential services only’ type of shut downs will likely last until at least April 30th in most geographical areas… and likely 2 weeks AFTER THE LAST NEW POSITIVE CASE in that area).
Initially, mid March, Dollywood announced installing 300 more ‘sanitation stations,’ but just a few days later, it was announced that movie theaters, shopping malls, AND most all large zoo’s and amusement parks are all closed throughout the nation… atleast until April 30th, and potentially July 1st, if the curve doesn’t significantly drop in the next 2 to 4 weeks.
Schools are closed likely for the balance of this school year. Those institutions that can ‘remote teach’ are… many schools have scrambled for video classrooms, and dropping off homework… some parents are trying to home school… even university housing started giving immediate vacate notices by mid-March forcing people that don’t have anyone near to pack up and find another place to live… some for the balance of this semester (or school year).
Conferences, concerts and events cancelled, NBA & NCAA seasons suspended, weddings, honeymoons, vacations, and gatherings cancelled.
Shopping at places like Walmart, Kroger, Aldi’s, and other ‘grocery’ stores have drastically shortened their hours… so they can ‘restock,’ disinfect, and organize. Even Home Depot has started closing at 6pm, and Lowes at 7pm, so their staff could get home earlier. Most ‘grocery’ and ‘repair’ type stores are still open, many other types of business are open for limited hours… with many temporarily closed. Many of the stores that are still open are literally ‘wiping down’ between customers, especially if an older person is ‘next in line.’ We’ve also heard of many refusing ‘cash or checks’ – and ONLY TAKING PLASTIC (credit, debit, or gift cards). As ‘paper is dirty’ and can transmit germs.
PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION is either closing, or suggested they drastically change or limit things for at least 2 to 8 weeks (until things are done, and under control). However, on 3/22, in a news report, we can see lines up on lines of ‘available taxis, and taxi drivers waiting to pickup up someone in NEW YORK CITY, where the spread is supposedly the highest in the nation.
Even campaign rallies called off in an election year, for at least the next month. Florida has closed the beaches for Spring Break, as well as most bars & clubs.
Churches stopping mass, services, and OTHER religious gatherings. I pointed that Easter is going to be quiet, and hurting a whole lot of industries this year… especially those in China that supply all those cheap baskets and toys normally sold… and the millions of EGGS! There should be plenty of CHEAP EGGS to eat soon! Notice that NO ONE has mentioned Easter in the media until April 3rd, when President Trump mentioned it. It will interesting to see how the media spins society being shut down for Easter…
Nursing homes and hospitals are banning visitors, to help protect those that might be the most vulnerable. All in favor of what might seem like over the top push for isolation and to reduce the spread.
Best Way to Prevent Illness
If you can, you might dilute the anti-bacterial disinfecting stuff you have, to extend it’s life and capability, generally not more than 60/40 (60% anti-bacterial soap, 40% filtered water). You probably won’t easily find the big jugs of anti-bacterial hand sanitizer in a store in most areas, especially on the east coast or major metro areas. However, YOU CAN MAKE SOMETHING THAT WORKS!
Bleach ~ An effective bleach solution mix by adding 5 tablespoons of bleach to a gallon of water to spray down surfaces that might have been touched by someone infected. Or basically, 4 teaspoons bleach per quart of water. Never ever mix bleach with ammonia, or any other cleanser, as it will make a gas that will harm your lungs… and potentially even kill you! And SERIOUSLY, DO NOT GET IT ON YOUR CLOTHING – it will spot, fade, or bleech cloth!
Alcohol ~ If you don’t have bleach, you can make an alcohol solution, diluting water with at least 60% alcohol (rubbing alcohol, moon shine, vodka, etc. – NOT BEER). Mixing 2/3rd alcohol with 1/3rd Aloe Juice, and a touch of essential oil, like lavender, pepermint, or ‘four thieves’ for scent and maybe a bit more of something. You can make an effective hand sanitizer and disinfectant for those that can’t get the pre-made stuff.
If you can’t get those ingredients, or find reasonably priced hand sanitizer, bleach, or alcohol… there are STILL GOOD VIABLE OPTIONS:
Regular Soap, Dish Soap (like Dawn or Ajax), some researchers have pointed out that even slightly diluted antibacterial or alcohol based MOUTH WASH in a spray bottle can kill the virus.
The key is DOING IT – WASHING YOUR HANDS & FACE – and forearms… especially after touching things STRANGERS have touched (like shopping cart handles).
Remember to staying away from the bottom of your shoes if you’ve been in the public… if you have to touch them, wash your hands again afterward.
Remember, the virus can live for 3 to 12 hours on many different types of surfaces, that haven’t been cleaned or exposed to UV light, but up to 2 ro 3 DAYS on steel and plastic… and some sputum (spit) samples have found active virus lasting nearly 14 DAYS! So, WIPE IT OFF FIRST! And wash your hands afterwards.
Growth Rate & Demographics
In an outbreak of an infectious disease, while it is important to study THE DISEASE and number of cases, and their levels… as well as who is affected (and how), it is equally important to take a critical look at the growth rate (spread) so the urgency can be determined, but to do that we need to have an serious idea of WHEN it first came to America, How and WHY.
ALL demographics matter, including the prior health of the individuals infected need to be known, so patterns can be found.
Yes it matters that there were (are) over 3,000 deaths (as of 3/30), BUT if 2900 of those people were LIKELY TO DIE or COULD HAVE DIED FROM THE FLU – or natural causes, such as a heart attack, pnemonia, COPD, cancer, etc. if the covid-19 virus hadn’t hit… then, seriously, THAT INFORMATION MATTERS!
Because this virus is NOT ‘air borne’ at this time – it can ABSOLUTELY be controlled and limited, which is great news for everyone concerned.
It is important to understand as much as possible, and to describe the problem correctly. Because while the cases of infection seem to be increasing in some areas, and even appear to be doubling at a constant rate, the assumption is that the growth is exponential. However, by limiting crowds, like the government is suggesting and pushing for, allows the cycle of growth to be broken, and the infection to be stalled or eliminated… giving time for vaccines or some effective treatment to happen. Viruses normally spread quickly… but sanitation and awareness really do limit and prohibit that spread.
Exponential math, like Italy seems to have experienced, can be scary. BUT, consider that the AVERAGE AGE of the citizens in Italy is around 47 years old… which means there are nearly an equal number of people over 70 as there are under 25.
Math is what math is, but to find the correct answer one must understand the whole problem, and calculate the reality. Remember the riddle in school… ‘Would you work for a penny today, 2 penny’s tomorrow, 4 the next day, and so forth?’ An impulsive person would jump up and say no, and leave. But, in reality, only a fool would say no to that, so long as the person offering is also a) multi-millionaire capable of really paying, and b) contracts to employ you for more than 17 days or so; because, on day 28, it’s $1,342,177.28… that day, and really the accumulation hits that number THE DAY BEFORE! Consider, just 2 days later, on day 30 is a whopping $5,368,709.12 for the day (and nearly $11m accumulated)!
So breaking the cycle, and extending (or eliminating) the doubling time is vital to the health and safety of every major metro area in the world! But also the areas surrounding those cities. Exponential growth allows just 500 cases to grow to more than 1 million cases after just 11 doubling cycles; and to over 1 billion cases in just 10 more doubling cycles. That simple math is what hurt China, Italy, and Spain… closure of the borders and huge public gatherings sooner COULD HAVE HELPED! Closure of public schools, especially k-12, was also vital to slowing the spread of the virus.
Ultimately, educating people HOW TO PROTECT THEMSELVES (and their loved ones), and how to TAKE RESPONSIBILITY to COVER YOUR MOUTH when you are sick or know you’ve been exposed (like Japan has done for years). Also, learning to NOT TOUCH YOUR FACE, and knowing a ‘cure’ is aggressively being searched for… should help.
The average age of people in the United States is significantly lower than Italy.
FINALLY! on 3/27/2020 – Dr. Deborah Birx, on the Coronavirus Task Force, agrees with what I’ve been saying for a couple weeks now. She’s CAUTIONS AGAINST the media, politicians, and journalists from twisting or aggrandizing the numbers! The evidence doesn’t support the ‘models’ claiming millions of people ‘getting’ the virus… or hundreds of thousands needing hospital beds (or ventilators)… or hundreds of thousands dying. At least NOT HERE IN THE USA! You can see her interview here. You can see her interview here.
Reason SOME FEEL there is so much urgency and fear
In the United States, the vast majority of the cases are in just 7 states… more specifically, in just 16 counties… all major metro areas, as of April 7th.
3,485 deaths New York City New York US
881 deaths Unassigned New York US
381 deaths Nassau New York US
211 deaths Westchester New York US
199 deaths Suffolk New York US
119 deaths Rockland New York US
346 deaths Wayne Michigan US
185 deaths Oakland Michigan US
100 deaths Macomb Michigan US
222 deaths King Washington US
209 deaths Cook Illinois US
200 deaths Bergen New Jersey US
186 deaths Essex New Jersey US
171 deaths Orleans Louisiana US
121 deaths Jefferson Louisiana US
147 deaths Los Angeles California US
If you aren’t in those counties or states… or around that, avoiding the problems will obviously be easier. Awareness is key. At the same point in time, they want to stop (or drastically slow) THE SPREAD… especially to rural areas that don’t have the medical staff, facilities, and personnel to really help oversee things. It’s important to understand and remember the following:
- Social Distancing, especially from strangers and people that MIGHT be either infected or vulnerable is important.
- Sanitation from what OTHER’S TOUCHED, especially strangers and those that MIGHT BE INFECTED – is important.
- Remember: If you are NOT AROUND IT, YOU CAN NOT GET IT!
People are seeing huge jumps in the number of ‘infected’ and hearing about how more celebrities and even healthcare workers have become infected or even died; WITHOUT understanding the reality:
- the virus is NOT AFFECTING ALL People (but only approximately 10 to 17% of the population, as demonstrated on the cruise ships, and countries sharing real numbers)… but it CAN INFECT ANYONE with a weak immune system, OR co-morbidity, including hyper-exposure or saturatation;
- like any virus, it can be spread pretty quickly and easily … but it absolutely REQUIRES CONTACT! You have to touch something an infected person touched! Or you have to breath ‘droplets’ (mist) from a cough or sneeze an infected person did (spewing stuff into the air) WITHIN about 6 to 10 feet of you. Or exchange bodily fluids (kiss, hug, hand shake) with an infected person. If they were further than their droplets, sweat, or fluids could travel, you’ll have no issues (with that part). WATCH WHAT THEY TOUCH… including THEIR PETS, and avoid stepping in sputum (spit).
- Wearing a surgical mask will NOT guarantee you won’t be exposed, or stop you from getting the virus. A mask should be used to prevent someone that is potentially infectious from spreading the virus to others via droplets through coughing, sneezing, or talking.
- Remember the virus CAN LIVE for 3 to 12 hours on most surfaces that haven’t been cleaned or exposed to UV light, but up to 2 to 3 DAYS on steel and plastic; it’s been claimed that under the right temperature, humidity, and with certain materials it’s suspected UP TO 14 days! So, if it isn’t YOURS – WIPE IT OFF FIRST!
- ‘incubation’ is generally 3 to 5 days AFTER exposure, before the first signs or symptoms (if you experience any).
- the virus doesn’t care about race, religion, income, class, job, age, gender, orientation, celebrity, position on topics, or politics
- it spreads the fastest WITHIN CROWDS of people (stay away from strangers),
- the greater exposure, the more likely you can get it, and
- it targets people with a weak immune system.
Even without ‘a cure,’ which we might now have, the math we can trust has shown that ‘it’ is not ‘deadly’ for the approximately 99.97% of the general people in America. “We” (the people), unless we have one of the co-morbidity factors AND are exposed enough to get the virus, won’t be physically harmed by this invisible enemy. Avoiding exposure is key, and if you don’t live in a major metro area, it’s very possible. However, even in ‘close quarters’ of a hot zone, as the cruise ships have shown, the government shut down is to reduce the spread to the .03% of the total population number that *might/can* have serious issues with it, to the lowest possible number; and to keep as many of the 10% to 17% of the people that *might* otherwise get it (if exposed) from rushing to the hospital without some reasonable indication they really have it. This is especially true when there is no vaccine, or readily available treatment for those that do get it.
Overwhelming hospitals, clinics, and medical facilities isn’t the answer, and is a disservice to everyone! Demanding tests when you don’t have any symptoms, don’t have a fever, haven’t been around someone that tested positive, and weren’t in an area that had a high number of contagions potentially only wastes test kits, and medical personnel’s time. Contray to the PEOPLE IN THE MEDIA & those in the government that seem to revel in chaos and pushing some irrational fear, based on a narative that makes less sense than ‘every voter should have a valid state or federal ID’ … universal testing IS NEITHER PRACTICAL nor cost effective… nor will it EVER HAPPEN! For a whole bunch of science, economic, and practicality reasons! Just imagine, EVERY PERSON entering America being quarantined for two weeks.
Resources – people, time, equipment, lab time, healthcare provider’s protection – is what the current administration was attempting to point out, as it tried to calm the fears the media (and certain government officials) purposefully whipped up.
Testing healthy people SOLVES NOTHING! That needs to focus on those with real symptoms, those in the healthcare industry, those with reason. Professionals should be focused on finding viable PREVENTIVE measures, an effective TREATMENT, rather than intubation and emergency breathing, ‘ease suffering,’ and hoping those that do have real issues can fight off the virus.
Here’s the problem with Covid-19:
What we know today: the average age of those who have died from COVID-19 in Italy is 80.3 years old, and only 25.8% are women, according to Silvio Brusaferro, legal representative at the Istituto Superiore di Sanità.
Thus far, as of March 24th, most of the CDC experts have relied on the data FINALLY disclosed from China; from the nearly 80,000 COVID-19 patients they admitted to over the last 90 days. We really don’t have much of a clue what hasn’t been disclosed… or verified. Using the data from Italy and Spain, where there appears to be full disclosure; and on the ‘petri-dish’ of the Cruise Ship that had 3,711 people aboard when the virus was discovered. On the ship, only 7 died… despite weeks of remaining around infected people during their isolated quarantine; but we’ll get to that math and example later.
The information gathered to date has identified very few deaths among people under 40, UNLESS they has one or more co-morbidity issues. The analysis of more than 12,000 infected people in the ‘under 40’ age group, only 26 died. It appears ‘strength’ and general health are significant. The OLDEST ‘survivor,’ documented here in America, is 104 years old; which demonstrates THERE IS ABSOLUTELY HOPE!
The concern is that those under 40 might help spread the virus; remember those 12,000 people had symptoms… and supposedly that number is less than 50% of the total that ‘could probably’ have the virus, meaning 24,000 people might have been infected during that time… and still, only 26 in that age range passed away.
According to most medical professionals, only about 50% of those that are infected have symptoms; the other half are asymptomatic (showed no physical signs or symptoms). It’s unclear IF an asymptomatic person can spread the virus, except through exchange of bodily fluids. However, with some of the healthcare professionals ‘getting it’ … it seems clear that a person exposed repeatedly, and saturated, can eventually get overwhelmed with the virus.
Limiting exposure is vital!
HEALTH OF THE IMMUNE SYSTEM, and of the LUNGS in particular, are the KEY FACTORS… which were ignored in the Chinese data sets released in March. Did the person(s) HAVE PRE-EXISTING conditions, or health issues, involving their immune system or lungs… or ability to fight off a virus? If no, they were far more likely recover without issue. There is some evidence that strongly supports that theory.
Prof. Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health, stated that Italy is overcounting deaths. “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12% of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,” said Ricciardi, according to the U.K. Telegraph. A “Pre-morbidity” is “a serious or life-threatening issue occurring or existing before the occurrence of physical disease (or emotional illness).” such as contracting covid-19.
In other words, 88% were already unhealthy, weakened, and otherwise had serious pre-existing conditions that would have likely contributed to, or caused, their death within a short time if they caught the flu or had virtually any type of serious illness.
The health of the patient, the quality of the healthcare system, all matter. IF YOU ARE IN A VULNERABLE CATEGORY, PLEASE SELF-ISOLATE until this is over!
Testing does NOT accomplish what most think
“Cases” are what make up the big number the media and certain government officials are pushing; however, it does NOT accomplish what most ‘people’ promoting it claim, and ignores a whole lot of vital information. It may have started with good intentions, to get federal help & resources, or money… but has turned out to be more manipulating and blaming of the government.
There are supposedly at least three different tests. The one considered the best, requires a cotton swab to be pushed WAY UP YOUR NOSE TO THE SINUS CAVITY (it is supposedly very uncomfortable). One, supposedly from China, reportedly had issues with false positives, incorrect negatives, and was abandoned after a couple weeks (and a lot of tests proving out wrong). The Abbot test, or ‘fast test,’ takes about 5 minutes to return a ‘positive’ … about 15 minutes to get a ‘negative,’ and is less obtrusive. What they aren’t telling you is that testing honestly CHANGES little to nothing, unless you’re positive, then you are ISOLATED or told to isolate. Again, at this point, it really SOLVES NOTHING… because there are no readily available treatments in all geographies, unless you’re around one of the hospitals doing the ‘reseach’ and ‘testing’ of MAYBE TREATMENTS!
Florian Krammer PhD, virologist and vaccinologist in the Department of Microbiology at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City, said the RNA of many viruses can be detected months after viral shedding has ended. “Follow-up tests can turn positive after a few negative tests, eg because sampling was better,” Krammer said. “Also, and this is a very important point, just because somebody still tests positive in a nuclei acid-based test does not mean they are still shedding infectious virus.“
The reality is, a positive test result for COVID-19 indicates that RNA from SARS-CoV-2 was detected on the swab. It’s initially assumed the patient is (or was) infected with the virus, and if there are no antibodies present in the blood test, the person is then presumed to be contagious.
Laboratory test results should always be considered, and a secondary test may be necessary to confirm (depending on if there are symptoms or not, and the proximity to an infected zone or person). Patient management decisions should be made with a healthcare provider, but most will follow the then current CDC guidelines. Testing solves very little, because the potential for false positives are real, and a ‘negative’ is ‘only at that moment’ (at most), and sadly, many states don’t report negative test results! Nor how many tests they’ve ‘used’ to obtain the number of confirmed positives they are reporting. As we can see from the FDA’s own cautions to New York on 15 March:
New York SARS-CoV-2 Real-time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel Updated: March 15, 2020 Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
The New York SARS-CoV-2 Real-time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel has been designed to minimize the likelihood of false positive test results. However, in the event of a false positive result, risks to patients could include the following:
- a recommendation for isolation of the patient,
- monitoring of household or other close contacts for symptoms,
- patient isolation that might limit contact with family or friends and may increase contact with other potentially COVID-19 patients,
- limits in the ability to work,
- delayed diagnosis and treatment for the true infection causing the symptoms,
- unnecessary prescription of a treatment or therapy, or
- other unintended adverse effects.
All laboratories using this RT-PCR test must follow the standard confirmatory testing, and reporting guidelines, according to their appropriate county and state public health authorities.
What does it mean if the specimen tests negative for the virus that causes COVID-19? A negative test result for this test means that SARS-CoV-2 RNA was not present in the specimen above the limit of detection, AT THAT TIME, IN THAT SAMPLE. However, a negative result does not totally rule out COVID-19, and should not be used as the sole basis for treatment or patient management decisions. A negative result does not exclude the possibility of COVID-19 in the future either.
(Notice: THEY REPEATED THAT A NEGATIVE DOES NOT EXCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF… you can see for yourself at: https://www.fda.gov/media/135662/download )
This is another of those things the general public doesn’t seem to understand. Just because you get tested, NOTHING GOOD NECESSARILY HAPPENS in most geographies! For example, one of my ex-brother-in-laws has been quarantined AWAY FROM HIS FAMILY, in a special wing of the hospital, because HE TESTED POSITIVE. At that time there was no vaccine, and may not be an effective treatment or magic pill to cure things, and he’s past the worst of things… NOW. One of our regular customer’s husband tested positive in the North Eastern states, and is quarantined at a nursing home. She’s not been allowed to see or touch him for more than two weeks, they can only communicate via phone… and then only when he’s awake, during limited hours. Thankfully neither have had to be intubated.
If you test negative… it may be a false sense of security; and if you’re positive, it may potentially open pandora’s box (depending on WHERE you are geographically… their resources and fears). Some people testing positive were ‘sent home’ to ‘self-isolate’ … while other’s were ‘taken away’ to a forced quarantine. Different states, different people, different situations… but there doesn’t seem to be much logic as to what the decision is going to be, UNTIL IT IS DONE.
It seems that most of the ‘positives’ from the ‘drive through’ tests were told to ‘self-isolate’ at their home or apartment… and to stay clear of other people. However, according to some media reports, there were some “FAKE TESTING SITES” – and ‘fake testing people’ – which weren’t sanitary, weren’t taking precautions, didn’t have any ‘official authority’ and it’s COMPLETELY UNKNOWN what they were really up to. One such group was in Louisville, Kentucky…
Metro Council President David James and Louisville advocates have been hunting down who they call fake COVID-19 testers. He said the scammers are charging more than $200 a test and using people’s DNA and personal information. “It’s really Medicaid fraud, is what it actually is. There is no reason that you should spend $240 dollars for a COVID test,” James said. “And they’re using the same gloves on Person A that they used on Person B, that they used on Person C.”
The mayor in Louisville, KY had them shut down.
As the scammers unknowingly pointed out, your DNA and personal information, is now (potentially) on a whole new and different government file. There has been nothing to confirm or deny on that, as it’s NOT been discussed whether ‘the results’ (beyond just a positive or negative) but also ultimately YOUR DNA is being ‘cataloged’ or databased anywhere.
IF you test positive – the ‘official’ testers MAY (or may not) want a confirming test, depending on the test, your symptoms, situation, and where you are (geographically). You’ll be ordered to isolate, or maybe quarantined. If they feel you are shedding (contagious), they *might* want all your contacts to get tested.
If you test negative, IT IS ULTIMATELY MEANINGLESS, because it’s only a ‘snap shot in time’ … and really doesn’t mean you won’t get it on the way home or in the days to follow, or don’t have it incubating. One can only know that it hasn’t actively entered your DNA, or where ever THAT test looks, YET… at the time the test was taken.
As one of my doctor friends said, “When there is public panic, combined with political agendas, mixing in some irrational fears… ANY type of testing could have far more consequences than rewards, especially since there is NO VACCINE or 100% effective and accessible treatment at this time! You either weather it at home, or you are bad enough you need help BREATHING (respirator or ventilator) and you need to go to the hospital… either way, if you get it, TIME IS THE ONLY REAL HEALER AT THIS POINT!” Though there are some promising treatments that are supposedly helping and working in some cases, and are being rolled out in more areas.
Remember, GOING IN TO GET TESTED, just because, as some media outlets and government officials have been pushing, CONSUMES VALUABLE SUPPLIES for the ‘really sick’ as well as for HEALTHCARE WORKERS. In addition, it’s valuable time for the medical staff and labs processing the tests. So, unless you are having a serious condition; can’t stop coughing, can’t get your fever back down under 100.4°F, and can’t otherwise take care of yourself… OR YOU ARE IN DANGER and honestly think you *MIGHT* have been in contact with someone that was infected, or in a confined location that had someone with the virus, you really should call YOUR DOCTOR to see what you should do. If you don’t have a doctor, google HEALTH CLINIC in your area and call them. If you think you *might* have it, STAY AWAY FROM OTHER PEOPLE as much as possible, including people in your family.
What does ‘testing’ really accomplish AT THIS TIME?
It only ‘tells a person’ (and the health officials) WHO IS INFECTED at the time of the test.
If does NOT tell a person that initially passes the test (tests negative for the infection) that they won’t contract it later in the day, or the days to come, or that a person was ‘in contact’ but not yet infected (i.e., within the incubation period).
A positive test tells an infected person they should be QUARANTINED from other’s, especially those that don’t have it; and to BE MORE CAREFUL not to spread it around. They should remain in their house… potentially in their room… with ANY & EVERYONE around them extra careful (or also in quarantine).
That is ALL ‘testing’ can do AT THIS POINT, is ‘confirm AT THE MOMENT’ whether a person has it or not. Less than half of those people that test positive actually display any symptoms… and of the half that show serious physical symptoms, less than 2% of those (in the USA) are compromised enough they end up in a hospital.
- Seriously, if you have a fever of more than 100.4 degrees F for more than a couple hours, and are experiencing ‘flu like’ symptoms… then STAY AWAY FROM OTHER PEOPLE…
- use the ‘crook of your arm’ (inside of ELBOW) to cough in…
- be MORE AWARE,
- watch what you TOUCH (especially if it’s things other people might touch, even the bottom of your shoes)… and
- if the problem persists for more than 4 to 6 hours, consider calling the hotline to see if you should be officially tested.
- IF you test positive, and are asymptomatic, you may have to be tested again to confirm… either way, YOU WILL BE ASKED TO QUARANTINE. PERIOD!
- If you refuse… like the guy in Lexington, KY tried, you may be forcibly quarantined.
- You will likely be asked for a list of EVERYONE you’ve been in physical contact with… and every place you’ve gone in the last two weeks, so those places can be tested, disinfected, and such… depending on how long it’s been, and the geographical area(s) you were.
- EVERYONE of the people you were around – family, friends, co-workers, clients, customers, employee’s of the stores you frequent – may end up getting tested, to help insure they didn’t contract it from you (get it, and thereby spread it to their circle of people & places).
- Officials may also try to figure out WHERE YOU GOT IT… especially if you didn’t travel out of the country, or weren’t around foreign travelers, mass transportation, or in known infection areas.
DO NOT GO TO THE ER (Emergency Room) unless it’s seriously a matter of life vs death; and if you are conscious, CALL THEM FIRST, as some areas have other options dedicated to testing and non-life threatening illness. Unless myself, or a loved one, was really seriously bad, I would do my very best to completely avoid hospitals, or anywhere people that DO HAVE THE VIRUS MIGHT congrigate.
Wash hands often, cover your mouth… drink a lot of water (hydration is vital)… take your vitamins & minerals… and be aware! .
The CDC noted that travelers should consider whether their home town or the destination they’re planning to visit has a high number of cases; in other words, no sane person would ‘want to go to’ New York City or the Seattle/Kirkland areas at this time… unless they were trained healthcare workers, with some awareness of how best to protect their own life, health and safety.
“If COVID-19 is spreading at your destination, but not where you live, you will be at higher risk of exposure if you travel there,” the CDC said. “Consider the risk of passing [or getting exposed to] COVID-19 to others during travel, particularly if you will be in close contact with people who are older adults or have severe chronic health condition.”
Additionally, in some areas of this nation, public health agencies have warned that those who do decide to travel may be asked by their employer or school to stay home for up to 14 days or more after traveling, to avoid spreading the illness.
There are travel bans (and limits) in some areas… especially foreign countries. If you have family stuck outside the American borders their challenges will be different; we can hope & pray they are safe, have shelter and food… and quality medical care IF they need it. The best advice is to seek safe shelter, and stay away from sick people, and try to work with the embassy to get back to America as soon as possible if there is a concern, even if it means being quarantined upon reentry. Each country is dealing with things differently, but most are following the example of America… and CLOSING THEIR BORDERS to limit the spread, and trying to get their citizens to limit their interactions with crowds. Rome and Barcelona are like ‘ghost towns’ as of this morning, with people sheltering indoors. Paris has banned walking & running in public.
The thought is that it’s better to isolate the healthy, which may not have it or be asymptomatic, and segregate those that are infected, treating those that are sick as well as possible… to eliminate the spread, to ‘flatten the curve.’ That makes some since, but could be devistating to the economy for the private sector working class. Those that test positive will have a government mandated isolation (quarantine).
LAMESTREAM MEDIA’s Reaction:
At first, I believe the government was trying to side step mass irrational panic, and a gross over reaction to the situation, because they didn’t yet have good intel from China; or understand the seriousness of things. They knew an over reaction would only make things even worse.
However, that soon happened, and we could readily see the results in most stores with stripped shelves mid-March, in nearly every city and town in America.
They didn’t want anything to cause further chaos, or flood ER’s with people claiming to be sickly (when they really aren’t), thus wasting time and resources… when they really didn’t have a serious (or real covid-19) medical issue… which seems to be what happened in some countries, and inturn helped SPREAD THE VIRUS.
They knew the tests weren’t fast, easy, or perfect. Further, they knew that a negative today didn’t mean a person won’t ‘get it’ later that day, or the next; and that a positive test had to be confirmed and validated, especially if the person is asymptomatic.
However, the irresponsible media (and a handful of irresponsible politicians) have pushed their listeners/watchers to a whole new level of fear, panic, and have caused more harm than this ‘pandemic’ likely ever could have! They seem more focused on either trying to GET MONEY & MORE RESOURCES, and/or playing politics, rather than honestly try to help SOLVE THE PROBLEM and reduce panic.
Some media sources are willing to push FAKE NEWS and make FAKE CLAIMS (like the ‘death rate’ is 10% in Italy, or 2 to 3% here in America… which are absolutely false). Some fools in both the media, and even some in politics, have actually publicly ‘wished for deaths’ of some groups of people. That’s sad. Seriously, there is no reason for ‘over dramatizing’ that many people in the MEDIA are actively doing.
Apparently, according to some of the fear mongers,’ the zombie apocalypse we’ve all heard about for the last forty years is now upon us. That’s honestly NOT the case… in reality. Most people that can actually step back from feelings long enough to DO THE MATH, would quickly know that.
Look at THE LAWS that were created long ago. The FEDS are getting those things – when and where they can, but if a state governor has access, they are AUTHORIZED to ORDER THEM THEMSELVES (with the FEDS GUARANTEEING PAYMENT for certain things… because they would likely get faster service (that way). And SOME STATES have laws blocking the ‘federal government’ from DOING FOR THEM. In some states, the ‘law’ was they ‘had to wait to get it FROM THE FEDS’ … or had to have their state officials (or citizens) VOTE on whether or not to allow the feds to help, prior to Trump LIFTING & EXPANDING things. Now, states have MULTIPLE OPTIONS.
Supposedly, a couple of the states had MANUFACTURING FACILITIES in their state, and a more direct line on the ordering. Ugh ~ how people twist stuff. Sad… really…
However, we also have ‘politicians’ like cuomo both OVER PAYING FOR masks (admitted to paying more than $7.00 for masks than normally cost $0.85)… and then waste them on purpose by testing over 240,000 people to have a net gain of just 16,000 ‘positives’ (so he can claim more urgency and cases than Washington or California).
There are a deluge of federal laws, as if they weren’t enough to limit healthcare resources, there are also state laws getting in the way. Some of these could either protect or set up monopolies, and generally preventing more being done. Prior to the actions Trump took, if your state isn’t willing to rescind laws and regulations that disallow federal help, you don’t have much reason to expect Uncle Sam to override your decisions. At the same point, there were a couple newer Executive Orders that blocked federal money from going to SANTUARY STATES. So, it’s a bit of a conundrum in places. Check out the Certificate of Need (CON), because it can be a nasty double edged beast that will likely get in the way of expanding capacity.
Click the link below to learn more: CON-Certificate of Need State Laws
Seriously, it has nothing to do with Trump. He honestly wasn’t our first or fifth pick, just the ‘better than hillary’ pick… be damn thankful it is him, and not criminal clinton at the helm right now! Because I do believe things would have been far worse under her rule than either obama or Trump’s.
Remember the H1N1 outbreak under obama? Granted, hind-sight is 20/20, but still, look at those numbers: CDC estimates that from Oct. 1st 2009 To Mar. 07 2010
51 Million Americans Got The Swine Flu (H1N1)
24 Million Medical Visits
670,000 People Hospitalized
55,000 DEATHS = which worked out to an average of 2,290/Deaths Week, or about 327 per day, during the Swine Flu Pandemic outbreak
This virus doesn’t care about politics, party lines, race, ethniticity, income, class, education, orientation, gender, or any other dividing factors. NOR SHOULD WE IN THE BATTLE AGAINST IT! Now is not the time to be either prejudice OR ‘PC’ (politically correct). We need to know WHO it targets the most, how and why. It ticks me off when people try to make it political! It is not, but it ticks me off far more when ANY politician, from any party, ABUSES POWER, fearmongers, and attempts to manipulate things to get more money from the federal government (i.e, TAXPAYERS).
PANIC IS NOT THE ANSWER! Nor is over reaction or misinformation! CONSIDER THE MATH…
One of the best ‘counters’ for the numbers regarding the spread of the virus I’ve seen is here… but ignore the ‘total tests’ – as that number is not accurate, it claims 2,082,433 on April 8th, but 2m tests were surpassed a few days ago. They’ve finally REMOVED the “percentages” from the USA numbers, because they were grossly misleading and wrongly calculated.
3,700 cases, 64 deaths – in the USA as of midnight 03-15-20
6,509 cases, 115 deaths – as of midnight 03-17-20
10,816 cases, 161 deaths – as of noon 03-19-20 … (218 serious or critical)
NOTE: on the 20th and 21st, more than 254,000 test results were done in NY, WA, and CA – which added about 16,000 ‘positive cases’ to the tally – though many were asymptomatic, and non-life threatening. It wasn’t really that many ‘new’ people… but people that were tested. Remember, MORE THAN 90% of those tested were negative!
19,648 cases, 263 deaths – as of midnight 03-20-20 … (64 serious or critical)
32,356 cases, 414 deaths – as of 6pm 03-22-20 (795 serious or critical)
53,655 cases, 698 deaths – as of 6pm 03-24-20 (1,175 serious or critical)
116,057 cases, 1,937 deaths – as of noon 03-28-20 (2,666 serious or critical)
Note: 29 & 30 – more than 1 MILLION TESTS were done in America
164,266 cases, 3,170 deaths – as midnight 03-30-20 (3,512 serious or critical)
Note: April 1 & 2 over 1.8 MILLION Tests have been done in America!
(Notice that the additional 800,000 tests only produced about 80,000 cases)
242,874 cases, 5,864 deaths – as 6pm 04-02-20 (5,421 serious or critical)
336,830 cases, 9,618 deaths – as midnight 04-05-20 (8,702 serious or critical)
Note: April 8th about 2.6 MILLION Tests done in America, but exact numbers are unknown, because some officials have ceased reporting ‘negative test results.’
400,549 cases, 12,857 deaths – as 7am 04-08-20 (9,169 serious or critical)
On April 8th, 59% of the total deaths in our nation (7,566) come from just three states: New York, New Jersey, and Michigan, and then in about 10 counties.
Hopes, Prayer’s, and Positive Thoughts for ALL … those suffering, the families of those that have passed, AND FOR THE HEALTHCARE PROVIDERS working on solutions and caring for the sick! Two emergency room (ER) doctors have tested positive for COVID-19 here in America, and are in critical condition, Dr. William Jaquis, the president of the American College of Emergency Physicians announced on Saturday (March 14). One is a man in his 40s in Washington state; another is a 70-year-old physician, James Pruden, in Paterson, New Jersey, who was leading the emergency preparedness plan at St. Joseph’s University Medical Center. While both of these cases are very sad, we have to consider their health… exhaustion level (many have been working 16 to 20 hour days, 6 and 7 days a week, trying to help people, and define the problem). Hours upon hours of continued exposure saturation, just the virus getting through one time is all it took in their weakened state. A couple doctors, and few nurses, here in American have passed away from Covid-19.
The W.H.O. (world health organization) can’t be trusted any more than the numbers from China can be trusted. If you want to learn more, check out Tucker Carlson’s report.
As of April 8th, China claims a total of 3,333 dead… but their numbers have been challenged, and are suspected of being a fraction of reality, when the communist leaders literally had people locked in their homes and apartments for quarentine. Remember, they have 1.437 Billion people! Their ‘normal’ annual mortality rate of 7.13 deaths per 1000 inhabitants from natural causes, which works out to 10,251,285 annual deaths ‘normally.’ Which is 28,086 people PER DAY… under normal circumstances, in the country of China!
Just the one Provence – Wuhan, where the outbreak started – has a whopping 10,607,700 people.
The official numbers as of 30 March midnight PST, with significant containment efforts, such as closing boarders, schools, and prohibiting public gatherings are happening around the world:
Italy has 135,586 cases and 17,127 deaths (population of 60,487,409);
Spain, 146,690 cases and 14,555 deaths (population 46,749,548);
China, 81,802 cases and 3,333 deaths (pop 1,437,767,915)
USA, 400,549 cases, and 12,857 deaths (pop 330,457,064 citizens/380m persons);
France, 109,069 cases and 10,328 deaths (pop 65,270,000);
Iran, 67,286 cases and 4,003 deaths (pop 83,671,720);
UK, 55,242 cases, and 6,159 deaths (pop 67,785,900);
Netherlands, 19,580 cases, and 2,101 deaths (pop 17,124,295);
Germany, 107,663 cases and 2,016 deaths (pop: 81,453,631);
Belgium, 23,403 cases and 2,240 deaths (pop 11,575,627);
Switzerland, 22,488 cases and 846 deaths (pop 8,636,778);
Turkey, 34,109 cases and 725 deaths (pop 83,835,750);
Brazil, 14,049 cases and 688 deaths (pop 213,863,000);
South Korea, 10,384 cases and 200 deaths (pop 51,256,069);
Portugal, 12,442 cases and 345 deaths (pop 10,204,431);
Indonesia, 2,956 cases and 240 deaths (pop 272,718,474);
Sweden, 7,693 cases and 591 deaths (pop 10,099,265);
Canada, 17,897 cases and 381 deaths (pop 37,599,000);
To date, WORLDWIDE:
1,446,992 Total Cases,
83,090 Total Deaths , with about
47,867 ‘serious/critical’ …
7.9 BILLION in a total world population
approximately 1 in every 10,000 tests positive;
averaging 1 in every 208,000 persons have died from this virus.
308,684 confirmed recovered
Counties with less prepared healthcare systems have higher rates per capita.
The POPULATION, population DENSITY, and PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION must take a bigger roll ‘in the numbers’… as should the existence of PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS (co-morbidity & vulnerability) that any virus would attempt to exploit.
In addition, ‘positive cases’ is a completely bogus number… while the number of HOSPITALIZATIONS & pre-existing conditions, density, and population are solid numbers, which are NOT PUBLICLY SHARED. The reality is the number of cases WILL ABSOLUTELY CLIMB as more testing is done… so long as the virus is circulating, and the reality that ‘the virus’ exists. There is also speculation that the virus actually existed in America BEFORE the person they believe to be ‘patient zero’ arrived on January 20th, 2020.
Mathematically, while the unexpected deaths are in fact sad, how many were truly ‘unexpected?’ If they were already sick, immune compromised, or otherwise less than healthy… might any virus have drastically caused a challenge? There is evidence that some ‘numbers’ on the death toll have been ‘natural causes’ or not covid-19 as a primary cause.
There aren’t many demographics, but this is what’s known:
- ~ 100% of that tested ‘positive’ in the US were in DIRECT CONTACT with the virus
- ~ at least 50% of the people that ‘get’ the virus are asymptomatic
- ~ only a very small percentage of symptomatic people have been hospitalized,
- ~ 80% of those testing positive have lost their sense of smell or taste
- ~ 80 – 90% that have had to be intubated have co-morbidities (compromised immune system, obesity, diabetes, hyper saturation)
- ~ 75 – 85% of those intubated or that passed away were EITHER heavy smokers, or were in an area of heavy pollution (particularly the partical named PM 2.5)
- ~ ‘males’ are TWICE AS LIKELY to die as females… if there are severe symptoms.
- ~ prolonged hyper-exposure and saturation is also a key factor
At this point, we don’t know how many were immune compromised, have other co-morbidities, or would have historically died of the flu… their ages, or other circumstances.
Again, the math matters… and demonstrates that the reality of the situation, and differences, in each of the countries. Notice many are NOT asking for more detailed demographics of those that have serious illness or died. Also, I find it interesting that there has been an international push for a ‘shut down’ and ‘public closures’ for EVERYONE, rather than just ‘safe isolation’ of the vulnerable and those MOST IN DANGER, combined with EDUCATION and rational awareness building.
Yes, we feel for those that have died, suffered, but the numbers are significantly different HERE IN THE STATES than most any of the foreign countries, because of different standards of sanitation, healthcare, awareness, general health, and support. This is especially important, considering the virus has been actively spread in the United States for just over two months now.
Hong Kong and Singapore were both hit early in January with the virus, but each has few cases (256/4 and 385/0 respectively). Much of western Europe was hit late, but have more than 10 times those numbers. On the 1st of March Italy had only three cases in the entire country, the 20th they have 47,021 cases and 4,032 deaths, 22nd they have 59,138 cases and 5,476; 24th they have 69,176 cases and 6,820 deaths, on the 30th their numbers were 101,739 cases and 11,591 deaths.
On face value, the difference is HOW governments… AND THE PEOPLE… responded to the virus, and how seriously the citizens took their personal, and social, responsibility.
I don’t honestly want anyone to think anyone should attempt to make this situation political. Sadly, the fact that ‘shut downs’ – bans – lock downs – and quaranteens have happening – it does involve the government, and rightly so in SOME AREAS. But things are not like what many in the lame stream media have attempted to push.
- Sadly, as store shelves prove, the lamestream media’s fearmongering, and push of misconceptions, and misunderstanding of the facts & figures, and failure to STOP AND QUESTION, THEN THINK and RESPOND… will lead to PANIC and HOARDING, which quickly outweighs common sense…
- It’s NOT like in the movies (or tv shows): “OUTBREAK,” “Containment,” “CONTAGEN,” “Pandemic,” or any of the others.
- In general, Covid-19 is NOT killing physically healthy people… though some medical staff have sadly fallen, there has been no information about their health or state of being prior to their infection… or how exposed or exhausted they were prior to getting it themselves.
- It can be spread, just like the flu, from healthy people to those that have weak or compromised immune systems.
Marc Serota, MD – kep points
There is a post circulating fakebook, claiming to be from a Dr. Marc Serota, MD Immunologist/dermatologist. I spent a bit of time trying to find the person, and finally, at nearly 8pm Friday evening (3-13-20), was able to actually speak with him enough to confirm he was indeed the Dr. Serota, MD that actually wrote the letter on Covid-19. He also stated that he was getting a great deal of inquiries because of his open letter, and holding out for ‘big media’ and ‘credentialed doctors’ that wanted to discuss things more.
He graduated medical school at the age of 23. He has the unique distinction of being triple board certified in immunology/allergy/asthma, dermatology, and pediatrics.
The following are the key points from his letter: (note: the emphasis, and some updated number edits, and grammar corrections, are made by me (Terry Mercer)).
Coronaviruses are a family of viruses. “coronavirus” is not unique to this particular strain. Everyone reading this has likely had another different coronavirus infection [at some point in their lifetime]. This particular strain has been named COVID-19.
Every upper respiratory virus has the potential to be lethal. Patients unfortunately die from many upper respiratory viral infections every year – most prominently the influenza virus. 30,000 people died from the influenza virus in 2019. The media didn’t report each one. [whereas] They have reported all coronavirus deaths [here in the USA, the number is 302 as of March 21th. Notice they are not telling us about the people lost but rather keeping a death “toll”.]
-Influenza: 30,000 deaths (US in 2019).
*Influenza pandemic of 1918: 675,000! (US), 20-50 MILLION!! (worldwide) <—These people I think would have been in favor of receiving their annual flu vaccine.
This is not meant to minimize any of these deaths but rather to give context and put some facts to the hysteria.
If you’re healthy, there is no need to walk around wearing a mask. … If you’re actually sick stay away from people and then, sure, wear a mask so you aren’t spreading respiratory droplets … When you see doctor’s walking around the world wearing a mask then you should too. Until then, stop.
- …. you’re only going to hear about the cases that get serious …
In summary 30,000 people died from the flu last year. Another 30,000 died in car accidents. I remember: H1N1 (2009), MERS (2012), Ebola (2014), Coronavirus (2020).
Take it from me: The poor resident who stood at the door of the ER to triage people in 2009’s swine flu (H1N1) hysteria. The over reaction is exponentially worse than the actual problem and in 2020 the over reactions I’m seeing are remarkable.
In cold and flu season you’ll probably get sick once or twice for about a week each. You might even get this particular coronavirus and most of you won’t even know it. I’ve seen people raiding supermarkets, major meetings and sporting events getting cancelled and fear/racism towards Asian people. These reactions are totally unnecessary and panic based.
Just do what you’ve always done during cold/flu season. Stay away from other people when you’re sick, wash your hands and keep them away from your face, and only go to the ER if you feel your symptoms are more severe than a bad cold/flu (shortness of breath, high fever, etc.). And also realize you can’t live on earth and not get viral illnesses from time to time. It’s a part of nature.
Please don’t ask for antibiotics (those treat bacteria – not viruses). That’s like asking for a fire extinguisher when you’re drowning. It can be a life saving device – but the wrong one for the problem at hand. Some doctor’s don’t want to fight about it when patients insist on antibiotics so they just prescribe them – but it doesn’t mean it’s actually helping you and in some cases they can be harmful (resistance, infections, allergic reactions just to name a few). If you’re one who asks for antibiotics every time you’re sick, again, take it from me: ask for a flu shot each year and a doctor’s note to stay home from work when you’re sick instead. You will be much better off.
The government is very proud that testing will be available to every American. Remember, we don’t test for any respiratory virus other than the influenza virus routinely. The reason is that’s the only virus that has a treatment (pill) you can take to shorten the duration of severity of the illness. I suspect if we start testing everyone with cold symptoms for coronavirus we’re going to find lots of it. It’s not going to change the recommendations to stay home and rest. And it’s not going to predict the small percentage of people who may develop more severe symptoms. Essentially whether someone has coronavirus 19 or some other cold/flu virus isn’t going to matter to your doctor. What it will do is slam urgent cares, ER’s and hospitals with every patient who has a cold so they can be tested. It is much more sensible to reserve testing for patients requiring hospitalization or more advanced treatments. Even that wouldn’t change their management but would be more to confirm the diagnosis and to not waste time looking for other causes of the patient’s symptoms.
In conclusion, yes there are novel viruses that our immune systems haven’t seen yet. So to get immune to it, you will have to get infected – at least until a vaccine is developed to bypass the getting sick part and just jumping straight to immune. Most people’s immune systems will do that effectively and be fine. A small percentage of unfortunate patients (primarily elderly, immune compromised etc.) will not be able to do that effectively and will need more advanced care. This is true of the cold/flu viruses we deal with every year. Follow normal cold/flu precautions and seek medical care if you feel your symptoms are severe. No need to get hysterical.
These outbreaks can be instructive for overall knowledge of public health. In particular showing your immune system the uniform of a potential invader (virus) so that if it ever sees a soldier wearing that uniform it will immediately attack and neutralize it without you ever getting sick. That is a wonderful thing and probably the single biggest achievement in medicine throughout human history. That is what vaccines are. The benefit to risk ratio of them are off the charts in favor of vaccines. If viruses like coronavirus scare you, then stay up to date on your vaccines and your immune system will be running the latest software.
If you still think you should be scared consider this: Doctors, nurses and other healthcare staff are going to hospitals every day. Crowded buildings with tons of sick people. They aren’t walking around the halls of the hospitals wearing masks and they haven’t stopped going to work. And they are all rolling their eyes at everyone else right now.
Marc Serota, MD
Dr. Serota’s Specialties & Experience
- General Specialties: Immunology, Allergy, and Dermatology
- Education: MD, University of Missouri Kansas City; BA, UofMKC
- Years in Practice: 9
- Expert Witness Profile – Dr. Serota is considered a national expert on dermatologic and allergic/asthma topics. He lectures nationally and has published numerous articles in his areas of expertise. He has served as an expert witness on cases ranging from asthma, allergies, occupational issues/exposures as well as skin conditions and skin cancers.
- Education & Licenses: Board Certified in Pediatrics, Allergy/Asthma/Immunology and Dermatology; Licensed in the following states as of March 2020: AL, AZ, CA, CO, FL, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, LA, MD, MI, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NV, NY, OH, OK, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WA , WI, WV, WY
Diamond Princess Mysteries
One of the very best ‘articles’ I’ve seen that explains some ‘common sense’ math, ratios, and deals with the actual ‘petri-dish’ type experimentation (after the fact) with the data that was made available. This is what happened on the ENTIRE CRUISE SHIP with 3,711 people that were quarantined, together… 2,552 were 50+ years old, and as of the writing, all 7 that had passed away were over 70 years old.
March 16th 2020
Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
OK, here are my questions. We had a perfect petri-dish coronavirus disease (COVID-19) experiment with the cruise ship “Diamond Princess”. That’s the cruise ship that ended up in quarantine for a number of weeks after a number of people tested positive for the coronavirus. I got to wondering what the outcome of the experiment was.
So I dug around and found an analysis of the situation, with the catchy title of Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for COVID-19 using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (PDF), so I could see what the outcomes were.
As you might imagine, before they knew it was a problem, the epidemic raged on the ship, with infected crew members cooking and cleaning for the guests, people all eating together, close living quarters, lots of social interaction, and a generally older population. Seems like a perfect situation for an overwhelming majority of the passengers to become infected.
And despite that, some 83% (82.7% – 83.9%) of the passengers never got the disease at all … why?
Let me start by looking at the age distribution of the Diamond Princess, along with the equivalent age distribution for the entire US.
Figure 1. Number of passengers by age group on the Diamond Princess (solid) and expected number of passengers given current US population percentages (hatched).
When as a young man I lived in a port town with cruise ships calling, we used to describe the passengers as “newlyweds and nearlydeads”. Hmmm … through some improbable series of misunderstandings and coincidences, I’m in the orange zone now … but I digress …
In any case, Figure 1 shows the preponderance of … mmm … I’ll call them “folks of a certain distinguished age” on the Diamond Princess. Folks you’d expect to be hit by diseases.
Next, here’s the breakdown of how many people didn’t get the virus, by age group:
Figure 2. Percentage of unaffected passengers on the Diamond Princess. “Whiskers” on the plot show the uncertainty of each percentage.
In addition to the low rate of disease incidence (83% didn’t get it), the curious part of Figure 2 for me is that there’s not a whole lot of difference between young and old passengers in terms of how many didn’t get coronavirus. For example, sixty to sixty-nine-year-old passengers stayed healthier than teenagers. And three-quarters of the oldest group, those over eighty, didn’t get the virus. Go figure. Buncha virus resistant old geezers, I guess …
Next, slightly less than half the passengers (48.6% ± 2.0%) who got the disease showed NO symptoms. If this disease is so dangerous, how come half the people who got it showed no symptoms at all? Here’s the breakdown by age:
Figure 3. Percentage of Diamond Princess passengers who had coronavirus but were symptom-free. There was only one illness among the youngest group, and they were symptom-free. As in Figure 2, the “whiskers” on each bar of the graph show the uncertainty.
Again, a curious distribution. Young and old were more likely to be symptom-free, while people in their 20s, 30s, and 40s were more likely to show symptoms. Who knew?
There were a total of 7 deaths among those on board. All of them were in people over seventy. So even though the generally young were more likely to show symptoms if they had it, it hits old people the hardest.
Finally, according to the study, the age-adjusted infection fatality rate was 1.2% (0.38%–2.7%). Note the wide uncertainty range, due to the small number of deaths.
For me, this is all good news. 83% of the people on the ship didn’t get it, despite perfect conditions for transmission. If you get it, you have about a 50/50 chance of showing no symptoms at all. And the fatality rate is lower than the earlier estimates of 2% or above.
It is particularly valuable to know that about half the cases are asymptomatic. It lets us adjust a mortality rate calculated from observations, since half of the cases are symptom-free and likely unobserved. It also gives a better idea of how many cases there are in a given population.
To close out, I took a look at the current state of play of total coronavirus deaths in a few selected countries. Figure 4 shows that result.
Figure 4. Deaths from coronavirus in four countries. Note that the scale is logarithmic, so an exponential growth rate plots as a straight line. Blue scale on right shows the deaths as a percentage of the total population.
At this point at least, it doesn’t appear that we are following the Italian trajectory. However … it’s still early days.
Finally, a plea for proportion. US coronavirus deaths are currently at 67 [when this was originally written], we’ll likely see ten times that number, 670 or so, might be a thousand or three … meanwhile, 3,100 people die in US traffic accidents … and that’s not 3,100 once in a decade, or 3,100 per year. That’s 3,100 dead from auto accidents EACH AND EVERY MONTH … proportion …
My best to all on a day with both sun and rain here, what’s not to like?
Terminology: Yes, I know that the virus is now called 2019-nCoV, that it stands for 2019 novel CoronaVirus, and that the disease is called Covid-19, and that it stands for COronaVIrus Disease 2019 … so sue me. I write to be understood.
Data: For those interested in getting the data off the web using the computer language R, see the method I used here.
Other Data: A big hat tip to Stephen Mosher for alerting me to this site, where you can model epidemics to your heart’s content … Mosh splits his working time between Seoul and Beijing, he’s in the heart of the epidemic seeing it up close and personal, and he knows more about it than most.
As of March 26th, ~ Talking about a DNR is NOT necessary, and the infection is NOT what the media is claiming! https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/26/dr_birx_coronavirus_data_doesnt_match_the_doomsday_media_predictions_or_analysis.html
As of March 23rd, 2020 ~ “More than 800 cases of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases occurred during outbreaks on three cruise ship voyages, and cases linked to several additional cruises have been reported across the United States. Transmission occurred across multiple voyages from ship to ship by crew members; both crew members and passengers were affected; 10 deaths associated with cruise ships have been reported to date.”
“During February 7–23, 2020, the largest cluster of COVID-19 cases outside mainland China occurred on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was quarantined in the port of Yokohama, Japan, on February 3 (3). On March 6, cases of COVID-19 were identified in persons on the Grand Princess cruise ship off the coast of California; that ship was subsequently quarantined. By March 17, confirmed cases of COVID-19 had been associated with at least 25 additional cruise ship voyages. On February 21, CDC recommended avoiding travel on cruise ships in Southeast Asia; on March 8, this recommendation was broadened to include deferring all cruise ship travel worldwide for those with underlying health conditions and for persons aged ≥65 years. On March 13, the Cruise Lines International Association announced a 30-day voluntary suspension of cruise operations in the United States (5). CDC issued a level 3 travel warning on March 17, recommending that all cruise travel be deferred worldwide.†“
There is another group out of Japan that I’ve seen do some strange math with the Cruise Ship; and failed to ask (or answer) some questions about some of the numbers and known facts (a link to their stuff at the end):
Covid-19 is NOT a ‘vector based’ transmission, like with zeka virus, so at this point there is NO EVIDENCE that insects are able to transmit the disease. However, to the best of our knowledge, there has been no direct testing with mosquitos… and whether they have the ability to ‘suck up’ the virus from one person, or if they do… how long it might last in them.
There is an article/post/claim circulating fakebook that claims ‘YOUR BLOOD TYPE will determine if you will get the virus or die from it’ – THAT IS NOT TRUE! Some doctors have actually looked into it. Their response: “If you are blood group A, you have an extra sugar on the surface of your cells called anacitosal glucosamine, which you don’t have if you are blood group O [that part is true]. And, such differences in sugars on the surface of cells can account for people with a certain blood type being more likely to be infected by a certain virus. [that is also sometimes true]
“However, the concept that individuals with different ABO blood groups would differ in their susceptibility or resistance to viral and bacterial infections and diseases has been explored since the early 1900s.” Dr. Kirsten Hokeness, of Bryant University, said. Contrary to the social media claims.
Dr. William Petri of the University of Virginia did not completely discount the findings, but like other researchers, suggested that more testing is needed… more data and cases with known demographics to compare. “If you are blood group A you shouldn’t be more scared,” Petri said, “The study shows very small changes in susceptibility. It goes from 31% of people who reportedly didn’t have COVID-19 versus 38% who did. So it’s tiny changes and it hasn’t been replicated and the study has not yet been peer-reviewed.
There are other factors regarding blood, aside from JUST TYPE, that will likekly play a larger role in the infection, aquistion and level of severity. Such as the Fibrinogen, C-reactive protein, Platelet count, Alkaline phosphatase, and Lactate dehydrogenase levels.
There is no evidence that Covid-19 can be transmitted TO HORSES or LIVESTOCK. However, with that said, IF an infected person coughs on a horse, and a non-infected person comes by and pets that horse while the virus is still alive, the non-infected person could potentially get it… just as if they picked up anything contaminated by an infected person. But the horse, cows, pigs, and other large animals appear to be safe from ‘getting’ the disease at this point.
Canine respiratory coronavirus (CRCoV) is a group 2 coronavirus. It is genetically related to the bovine coronavirus (which can cause respiratory infections in cattle) and the human coronavirus that causes the “common cold” in people. CRCoV is NOT related to the group 1 enteric coronavirus that can cause diarrhea in dogs. CRCoV is also sometimes referred to as ‘Kennel Cough.’
HOWEVER, You should restrict contact with pets and other animals while you are sick with COVID-19, just like you would around other people.
“A dog tested “positive” [for covid-19] in Hong Kong” ~ REALLY! But you don’t hear anything about that in the media.
The canine patient, a 17-year-old Pomeranian, was in close contact with an infected human, who likely was shedding large quantities of the virus. [‘shedding’ = coughing droplets containing the virus, and touch with hands that also contained the virus of the infected]. Authorities quarantined and tested the dog. In short, there was coronavirus on the dog just like there was coronavirus on the floor in the room [which is why we also pointed out to BE AWARE & CAREFUL of the BOTTOM OF YOUR SHOES after being out in public, where an infected person might have spit].
The dog was not infected or diseased on Febuary 26th. Subsequent tests revealed weak positive results for the nasal and oral samples taken on February 28 and for the nasal samples on March 2 and March 5. The weak positive result 5 and 8 days after the dog was removed from the home where the person was sick suggests the dog has a low-level infection, which was likely caused by a case of human-to-animal transmission.
On March 18, after their owner tested positive for COVID-19, two dogs were placed in quarantine. One of those dogs, a 2-year-old German shepherd, tested positive while the other dog was negative. As in the previous case, it is likely another instance of human-to-animal transmission.
All pet mammals from households with confirmed human cases of COVID-19 will be placed under quarantine and veterinary surveillance for 14 days in Hong Kong.
Contrary to what some in the media have claimed, and while there is still no indication that pets can shed the virus [to people] at this time, it makes sense that SALIVA or bodily fluids FROM AN INFECTED ANIMAL that has the virus COULD logically transfer. Also, a pet that ‘has’ the virus ON ITS FUR, because it was around a seriously infected human, could also potentially transfer the virus if a third party petted it [or touched the virus].
More info on the CANINE version of the cononavirus:
March 19, 2020, update: The previously positive quarantined dog in Hong Kong was released on March 14 after negative tests. The dog died two days later. No necropsy was performed on the 17-year-old Pomeranian, but the dog likely died from causes other than COVID-19 as it had never displayed any clinical signs of illness.”
Source on the Hong Kong dog testing positive: https://vetmed.illinois.edu/pet_column/coronavirus-pets/
It’s important to understand that Veterinarians are very familiar with other coronaviruses. As they have been treating animals for them, and doing research on them for over 40 years.
Similar but different coronavirus species cause several common diseases in domestic animals. Many dogs, for example, are vaccinated for another species of coronavirus (Canine Coronavirus) as puppies. However, this vaccine does not cross protect for COVID-19.
From WSAVA, Dundas, Ontario Canada
“Coronaviruses belong to the family Coronaviridae. Alpha-and beta-coronaviruses usually infect mammals, while gamma and delta coronaviruses usually infect birds and fish. Canine coronavirus, which can cause mild diarrhea and feline coronavirus, which can cause feline infectious peritonitis (FIP), are both alpha-coronaviruses. These coronaviruses are not associated with the current coronavirus outbreak.
Until the appearance of SARS-Cov-2, which belongs to the beta-coronaviruses, there were only six known coronaviruses capable of infecting humans and causing respiratory disease, including the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus SARS-CoV (identified in 2002/2003) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus MERS-CoV (identified in 2012). SARS-Cov-2is genetically more related to SARS-CoV than MERS-CoV, but both are beta-coronaviruses with their origins in bats. While it is not known whether COVID-19 will behave the same way as SARS and MERS, the information from both of these earlier coronaviruses can inform recommendations concerning COVID-19.
The canine coronavirus vaccines available in some global markets are intended to protect against enteric [intestinal] coronavirus infection and are NOT licensed for protection against respiratory infections. Veterinarians should NOT use such vaccines in the face of the current outbreak thinking that there may be some form of cross-protection against SARS-Cov-2. There is absolutely no evidence that vaccinating dogs with commercially available vaccines will provide cross-protection against infection by COVID-19, since the enteric and respiratory viruses are distinctly different variants of coronavirus. No vaccines are currently available in any market for respiratory coronavirus infection. [Information from the WSAVA Vaccination Guidelines Group]”
Here are some pretty informative videos, for those that appreciate that type of learning (over reading).
The ‘official’ US Government website: https://www.coronavirus.gov/
Interim Guidance for Public Health Professionals Managing People With COVID-19 in Home Care and Isolation Who Have Pets or Other Animals (Click Here)
Keeping Pets Healthy Keeps People Healthy Too! (Click Here)
There are some people that feel Trump is somehow to blame. Those people failed to understand what he’s really done, the good and bad regarding this outbreak. Just how much things have slowed by him closing the borders, pushing for some bipartisan legislation for federal assistance to close off travel from other countries, quarantine some of those coming from infected situations, and trying to MINIMIZE panic.
One person made the following statement, parroting some fake news idiot “Respirators, ventilators, all of the equipment — try getting it yourselves,” Trump [told the nation’s governors]. Nothing like being caught back on your heels. Worst Administration in history!!”
Their hate for Trump and IGNORANCE should NOT be a beacon, but for some it seems to be.
That is NOT WHAT President Trump SAID. In reality, “IF THEY WANT TO TRY TO… THEY CAN… and MIGHT HAVE A BETTER or FASTER SOURCE” were part of the words Trump said, that were purposefully left out (of the false claims). Clearly, those twisting the words, or trying to make this virus about Trump (or even political) suffer from TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome)… which is frankly very sad; to have so much hate they have either have selective hearing or a willingness to twist the truth, as well as what was really said or done.
Personally, it’s a tough call. Dr. Serota might have had it spot on when he said, “The over reaction is exponentially worse than the actual problem and in 2020 the over reactions I’m seeing are remarkable.”
Specifically,… this is exactly what Trump said (if you’re interested)
I can speculate on why congress, governor’s from certain states, and some people in society are reacting as they are; but it would be just speculation… for many it’s a gross over reaction, political, and potentially even financial. As the old saying goes, “Never let a good crisis to go to waste.” It appears that some politicians (and the lame stream media) are taking those words to heart. For some it might be honest fear (transitive concerns, but more likely it’s of the unknown, the maybe, or could be… or some completely false association with some movie or TV show they saw).
The opening line of the 1995 movie “Out Break” is a quote: “The single biggest threat to man’s continued dominance on the planet is the VIRUS.” ~ Joshua Lederberg, Ph. D Nobel laureate.
The government has been trying to ‘deal with’ and ‘procure’ (even paid a whole lot of money for nothing, after the last pandemic). You can read more about the ventilators that have been ‘on-order’ for decades here.
Honestly, I’m not sure it’s not irresponsible, knee jerk reactions, and politicians claiming to be well meaning… that love SPENDING OTHER PEOPLE’S MONEY… that doesn’t threaten this nation more than any virus. Personalizing and goveroning from fear is NOT a wise answer.
Shutting down the borders, and promoting positive awareness and education is important, and is vital to SLOWING DOWN THE spread of the virus.
There were a lot of ‘organizations’ and way too many in congress pushing for more funding for this or that ‘special interest’ BEFORE the virus hit our shores. They wanted to widen their budgets, and that were asking the government for more, to raise the debt ceiling, ignore it, or even eliminate it completely, long before Covid-19. Many weren’t getting it THEN, because ‘we’ (the people) are 23 Trillion in debt, and growing; with another 90 to 120 Trillion waiting in the shadows, of bills already passed in the 110th & 111th congressional sessions (thank goodness there was a debt ceiling).
‘Hunker Down’ is what the CDC is urging Americans to do
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended that no gatherings of 10 to 25 to 50 people be held in the U.S. for the next two months, one of the federal government’s most sweeping efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. However, when fear was stirred up, and the media made claims of this unknown virus taking out 3% of ‘the population’ and ‘being worse than’ swine flu. Fear went on red alert. It didn’t matter IF it was true, only that it was claimed, and repeated… and some deaths actually happened. Just to be clear, from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, the CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases of H1N1 (swine flu). Of which 274,304 hospitalizations, and 12,469 deaths in the United States. And today we have the media is claiming this corvid-19 virus is worse…
The media, and most of the left, have tried to personalize it… to scare people into awareness. To frighten people with claims of death, mayham, and more suffering. They’ve told you that YOU SHOULD BE AFRAID! We don’t have a vaccine (yet), there is no protection (at this point) and everyone, everywhere, is in danger. Science is actively looking for solutions, but they’ll need to spend a trillion dollars or more, to help you survive. At least that is what those wanting to spend taxpayer’s money claim. According to them, even if you don’t get it… you could unknowingly help spread it… merely by being near them. The latest, is that the ‘infection’ will be around for decades.
For most citizens, there was a pause, wanting more information… demanding facts, not wanting to jump on the fear wagon, and having some awareness of the ‘corona virus’ from the animal world, and years past. Many wanting to help… at least do their part, to protect themselves, and their family & friends, customers, clients, and patients.
I’m still NOT ASKING YOU FOR ANYTHING BUT A LITTLE TIME to help educate and inform people so we might help STOP knee jerk reactions… and instill some COMMON SENSE REALITY to the situation. If you are in agreement, even if just 51%… PLEASE SHARE THE ORIGINAL EMAIL or the link to this page. Because of the fearmongering, organizations, groups, and agencies are getting huge funding; emergency congressional funding, many based on disinformation… so they can claim to research and supposedly help… in some way with this latest virus. We are asking for nothing, but AWARENESS and COMMON SENSE.
In reality, the over reaction is exponentially worse than the actual problem! Do you remember Y2K? All they hype and hyperbole? All the irrational, illogical, and outright lies the media and powers to be were telling people? Planes didn’t fall out of the sky. Sewer systems didn’t back up. Food & water supplies were NOT in jeopardy. People didn’t die, and life went on. But you wouldn’t have known that right up to the count down if you listened to the LAME STREAM media! Here, some have actually died. And all eyes, in the media – and left – are on Trump, hoping he’ll screw up, ready to blame him for any error, mistake, or lack of judgement. So, the government is set on over precaution, because ‘if’ it CAN kill – then current administrations, in multiple countries, want the least amount of negatives as possible in their nation! So they might be reelected, save their citizens, and avoid chaos within their borders. They are locking things down, closing borders with little to no warning, and trying to push for people to BECOME AWARE!
January 2020, when the covid-19 virus was described ‘as it was’ – a FLU VIRUS, everyone thought, ‘ok – don’t want it, but we’ll be fine.’ China proclaims some deaths on January 30th, and Trump institutes travel limits on China and the left media initially claims he’s over reacting.
As of 13 March 2020, reported by the CDC in the USA, 41 Deaths and Total Cases 1,629 This data include both confirmed and presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 reported to CDC or tested at CDC since January 21, 2020, with the exception of testing results for persons repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China and Japan.
Then other countries start reporting cases… including a nursing home in late February here in the USA, Washington State. A few days later, the WHO (world health organization) pushed it to a “PANDEMIC” title, and suddenly store shelves are devoid of toilet paper, anti-bacterial products, and empty of staple food supplies.
The media is still riddled with tons of MISINFORMATION and fearmongering, causing unnecessary panic among those that seem to feel they are ‘at risk’ and ‘everyone is going to get it’ and ‘3% of the population is going to die.’ THOSE THINGS ARE NOT TRUE!
There really is some good to great information out there, backed by facts and logic. Info that deals with what most American’s can expect, and how they can help themselves, and their loved ones.
I don’t think people are ‘cold hearted’ about the covid-19 virus when they say “DO NOT PANIC, BECAUSE a) it’s like a bad flu, and b) only those that *might* have died if they got bad flu appear to be the only group seriously affected. (immune compromised elderly and already sick could be in jeopardy… but they would be in jeopardy with any infection). That is a reality… that doesn’t mean people shouldn’t care… or be careful, more aware, and try to help not spread (or get) it… it means that some RATIONAL precautions should be happening ALL THE TIME, not just when the media (or WHO) claims something is spreading.
Death, especially because of sudden illness, is sad and bad… but up the immune system boosters (vitamin c especially, and broad spectrum general nutritional support), be sanitary, – WASH YOUR HANDS, especially after touching things strangers touched, and avoid enclosed tight spaces with strangers (or protect yourself if you do travel in planes, trains, subway, buses, even taxi’s that had other’s touching the surfaces you’re now touching). Keep people from coughing on you. Keep your dirty hands away from your face, nose, eyes… especially if they aren’t just YOUR OWN GERMS! If you have to cough, do it in the crook of your arm – not your hand! Spreading your own germs is what it is, you’re body is used to YOUR GERMS… it’s strangers germs that might be the problem. The overgeneralized HUGE knee jerk reaction is what MOST SANE people were trying to avoid…
It wasn’t so much that ‘oh well, they were sick and gonna die anyway’ but more of a “DO NOT PANIC, because IT’s NOT GOING TO EFFECT 90% of the population at all, and of the 10% it will affect… 97% of those will be 100% fine. The morbidity rate might well be 10 to 20% (that get this virus), but the mortality rate is NOT 3%, but rather 3% of 10%… 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟵𝟵.𝟵𝟳% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝗽𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗲.
As of March 19th 2020:
Understand, 9,842 of those cases are “UNDER INVESTIGATION” – and NOT people ‘in’ the hospital, or necessarily ‘with’ the virus, but people with SOME OF THE SYMPTOMS that are awaiting test result confirmation. HUGE difference, and one of those ‘better safe than sorry’ type scenarios.
Science News followed the ‘Cruise Ship’ quarantined off the coast of Japan closely. “As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people confined to the living space at sea, aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, confirmed that 634 cases, or 17%, had the virus; but 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis (about half).
Of those people with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9%, Russell and colleagues calculated (from Science News). Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91%, with none dying that didn’t have symptoms.
Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio [of that group segment] was about 7.3% [if they showed symptoms].
Extrapolating those numbers to China, the team estimates 1.1% OF THE SYMPTOMATIC CASES there turned deadly. Considering asymptomatic cases drops that ratio to about 0.5 percent in China, the team calculated.
The problem with the ‘cruise ship’ calculations are that we don’t know the demographics (country of origin, state of health, or medical history) of the people were BEFORE the cruise… so none of that appear to be factored in, for a better snap shot of reality.
For example, individual health, physical shape, and broad-spectrum nutritional support and hydration are vastly different. Even more important right now. Some people go out of their way to stay active, and to be active, and maintain some positive level of health. Many don’t, and may be junk food junkies or have chronic issues. This cruise contained mostly seniors OVER 2500 of the passengers were seniors. It’s great to have a place to start, and a ‘controlled group’ to view the numbers, but there really (still) isn’t enough information… IMO (in my opinion) to claim a mortality rate of 0.5% (or higher).
I do think the morbidity rate could easily be in the 10 to 20% range… (morbidity is the LIKELIHOOD of getting symptoms, or getting the illness). But those number will likely lessen with AWARENESS and education about being more sanitary and keeping distance from strangers (washing/wiping what OTHER PEOPLE touch) happens.
I don’t know what’s being said out there on the left coast… but out here, on the east coast, there have been ‘wipes’ at the entrance of walmart and krogers for more than a couple years; to ‘wipe’ the handles of shopping carts, and your own hands, to help prevent the spread of germs. Awareness that some people spread germs, and can get other’s sick, has increased massively the last few years… so it should be no surprise that good information can help slow and prevent the spread, as well as the danger.
“For a while, life is not going to be the way it used to be in the United States,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on Sunday. “We have to just accept that if we want to do what’s best for the American public.”
One of the things I find the most interesting is the concern for the lives of others with this virus, when there are so many homeless people, orphans, high suicide rates, broken homes, substance abuse problems, and even abortions. The double standards of those squawking the loudest speak volumes, about what the media deems as ‘important’ and ‘worthy’ of air time. Core values are often represented in the opinions people express.
Sadly, the national media is busy fanning the flames. The issues in New York City and surrounding areas are NOT even close to what the balance of the country are dealing with. BOTH New York and California are pushing for federal money, attempting to blame others (like Trump) for the outbreak in their area… and acting a lot like ‘Chicken Little’ (the sky is falling, the sky is falling). It seems NEITHER ARE CAPABLE OF DOING MATH!
New York state – in a population of NEARLY 8.5 MILLION PEOPLE has 15,801 cases, 114 deaths as of 4pm 3-22-2020. According to deBlasio, 35% of their current hospitalizations are people OVER 70 years old, and they’ve seen NO DEATHS in people from birth to 44 years old).
Mayor deBlasio FINALLY said some things I absolutely agree with:
- TESTING IS NOT THE ANSWER
- Testing should be done on AT RISK PEOPLE ONLY!
- A Negative Test Today IS MEANINGLESS
- Social Distancing is advised in Waiting LINES ALSO…
- Elective medical procedures should be POSTPONED or rescheduled
Como is pushing for federal money, AND GOT IT! He claims they project a ‘need’ or 110,000 ‘hospital beds’ for THIS crisis, and wants the feds to ‘nationalize’ medical supplies and all costs for dealing with this. Como said masks they WERE PAYING $0.85 for are NOW BEING PURCHASED FOR OVER $7.00 because of ‘supply & demand.’ Yet wants the feds to reimburse them. SMH (shaking my head) at the non-sense of his words, actions, and apparent lack of common sense! como’s gross over reaction, and manipulation – burning up over 61,000 ‘tests’ – to gain 4,800 ‘new cases’ – so he can push the tests through “new york’s” 200 labratories… and to boost the numbers in NY over other states… was NONSENSE!
Now como is talking about FORCING BUSINESSES TO PRODUCE… and forcing PEOPLE TO WORK (building masks, and medical equipment… and temporary hospitals)… at the expense of the federal government (and AMERICAN TAXPAYER’S). If making the masks was so easy, as he stated, then como and his staff should be rolling up their sleeves and start making them! That would be a far better use of his time than burning up the media whining about getting federal money, and the ‘defense production act.’
I absolutely don’t believe there is ANY science or proof that ‘earlier’ testing would have changed anything!
como mandating a forced a 50% increase of capacity for hospitals, and demanding 100% increase for ‘beds’ with a LAW?!?! Seriously?? How is that even remotely good or better for the people of New York? How he was elected to lead anything is amazing. como is FULL OF CRAP ON MANY THINGS! There is absolutely zero proof that the virus can live and transfer from objects after 24 hours! He’s being over dramatic, and purposefully trying to instill fear and judgement on everyone that isn’t ‘locking down’ … yet he wants to force people ‘to build’ masks and protective clothing, what an oxymoron! como just claimed that 40 to 80% of the population ‘will get this virus’ … do you see a hole in his neck? Because that fool is pulling numbers out of it! He’s also claiming that the ‘lock down’ is going to last for 6 to 9 months or more. Seriously? People with cognitive distortions or mental illness should not be elected to run anything in America!
The media’s over generalization and on going national coverage of como & deblasio’s press conferences… DOES NOT HELP THE REST OF THE STATES OR CITIZENS! But the lame-stream media is sensationalizing, headline chancing, apparently helps them stay relevant, and actually generate their profit. The media should be honestly educating, informing, and encouraging; but many aren’t (and frankly have helped make the problem worse in some geographies).
If you want a printable version of this document, let us know.
Celebrities Testing Positives
Initially I had a list of ‘celebrities’ around the world that the media reported as testing ‘positive’ – or being in quarantine… or even passing away; but decided to remove it. Not that they don’t matter, but more so that they don’t necessarily matter ANY MORE than YOU… or any other person. They just had a name that was in the media at the time. I’ve purposefully removed the list from this page.
Having spend many years in crowds at a variety of events, it quickly becomes clear that public celebrities, security personnel, and those attending the big events would be more likely to become infected with what ever virus was circulating at the time. Celebrities, politicians, and musicians merely because they shake hands, give hugs, and are often in close contact with strangers often many times a week.
Next up are the public local known’s: the healthcare workers, teachers, cashiers, sales people, and small business owners… that are constantly interacting with the general public. Awareness is key… sanitation important, and I sincerely hope some of those germaphob’s feel vindicated and justified from their years of paranoia and hyper cleanliness.
Cases in U.S. according to the CDC, click here
The key is to NOT PANIC! Do NOT jump on the bandwagons of over reaction, over generalization, or panic some politicians have tried to paint and promote. Yes, it is sad… but the problem will NOT BE SOLVED with emotion! You and your family won’t be saved by emotion in the event of a crisis! Just like when dealing with a wild and unpredictable animal… WE MUST KEEP A CLEAR HEAD, rational response, and reasonable distance!
“It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit.” ~ Harry S Truman
Understanding the numbers
1% = .01 or 1 in 100, .01% = .0001 or 1 in 10,000, and
.0001% = .000001 or in 1,000,000
The Covid-19 numbers are kind of like Chicago Gun Violence numbers… in general, at first glance… or if you are ‘there’ in the area (of a hot zone)… they can be scary huge, but upon a closer look the vast majority really impacts only certain areas, and then usually only certain types of people (criminals and gang-bangers for the greater part of Chicago is perfectly safe… and Corona tagets the vulnerable with a weak immune system). Yes, innocents are sometimes harmed, but THEY ARE IN THAT AREA. Whereas Covid CAN be contracted by ANYONE, it CAN KILL those with a vulnerable immune system or weakened lungs… one truth is 100%… THEY HAVE TO BE EXPOSED! However, like the Chicago gun violence, YOU HAVE TO BE EXPOSED! If you aren’t exposed, you have ZERO RISK!
Consider for a moment, if there is a possibility that the Covid-19 disease is somehow designed to ‘target’ or impact people of Italian or Mediterranean descent MORE THAN other nationalities. Potentially useless speculation, but I say this because of the reality of the numbers in Italy, the large Mediterranean population in NYC (which may are supposedly effected). PLUS there is Italian family that has sadly experienced 4 deaths with 3 more IN THE HOSPITAL from Covid-19. Maybe it’s just a coincidence… but it’s something that should be looked at, and at least ruled out. I’ve not heard anyone in the media or medical field mention that potential, as of 24 March 2020. San Marino, and ‘enclave microstate’ of ITALY, has a total population of 33,913 as of March 29th, 2020. On 14 March, the government ordered a nationwide quarantine until 6 April, because of their death ratio.
There are many diseases, such as sickle cell anemia or b-thalassemia that target ethnically specific genes. Which begs the question: Is there any possibility, aside from the weak immune system and age, that ethnicity could also play a role in who CAN get it worse? That is why knowing the demographics of the sick and dying are so important… and shouldn’t be ‘hidden.’ Protect their names & addresses, but EVERYTHING ELSE that *might be* relevant should be charted and shared so patterns might be seen.
Facts without Fear – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AF5FqvuDML4
~ Tucker Carlson – on the dishonesty of CNN blaming Trump for the AZ guy that died from taking FISH TANK CLEANER: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bq7UDA-Kgk8
~ For those bored, curious, and interested… here is the Senate Bill, the CARES Act: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/3548/text
One of the Chinese Microbiology Researchers that has been sited in many of the Coronavirus studies from Asia, authored this paper January 2020, “A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster” – read it here The PDF of that paper is here
Lou Dobbs is calling out the fearmongering conartist cuomo… here on 3/27
Politics aside… BE SAFE, BECOME AWARE… and THINK POSITIVE!
Until further notice:
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